A recent United Nations report, released on October 24, 2024, sounds the alarm over the planet’s trajectory towards catastrophic climate change. The Emissions Gap Report by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) reveals that the current policies and pledges by governments will likely lead to a global temperature rise of over 3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. This would mark a dramatic departure from the goals of the Paris Agreement, which seeks to limit warming to “well below” 2°C, with efforts to stay within 1.5°C.
The report states that, under current policies, global warming is set to reach 3.1°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100. This projection is alarming, considering that the Paris Agreement aims to limit the rise to 1.5°C to avoid the most devastating impacts of climate change. Even with the implementation of all the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) submitted by countries, the Earth is on track for a 2.5°C rise, which would still result in significant and irreversible consequences.
Global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, with a 1.3% increase between 2022 and 2023, setting a new record of 57.1 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. Despite commitments made in previous international climate summits, the global community is struggling to reduce emissions at a pace necessary to avert dangerous climate tipping points.
According to the report, most nations, especially major economies like those in the G20, are falling behind on their commitments to cut emissions and meet their 2030 targets. Anne Olhoff, the chief scientific editor of the report, remarked that the lack of progress among these countries is troubling, particularly given their significant share of global emissions
The report also highlights that while renewable energy adoption is growing, it is not replacing fossil fuels quickly enough to meet climate goals. A rise of 3°C in global temperatures could have profound and potentially irreversible consequences. The report details several key areas of concern:
- Extreme Weather: Increased warming will exacerbate the frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, floods, droughts, and storms. This year alone saw record-breaking heatwaves across Europe, Asia, and North America, alongside catastrophic flooding in parts of South America and Africa.
- Sea Level Rise: A global temperature increase of 3°C would result in significant sea level rise, threatening low-lying coastal cities and small island nations. Melting polar ice and glaciers will accelerate, leading to widespread displacement of communities.
- Ecosystem Collapse: The natural world would face immense stress under these conditions, with many species unable to adapt quickly enough to the changing climate. Biodiversity loss would intensify, potentially leading to the collapse of ecosystems that support human life, such as pollination and fisheries.
- Economic Disruption: The report emphasizes the economic toll that unchecked climate change would impose. From agricultural losses due to droughts to infrastructure damage from storms and floods, the financial costs are expected to be in the trillions, with developing nations suffering the brunt of the impact.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres, in response to the report, issued a stark warning: “Earth is issuing a distress call.” He urged world leaders to significantly ramp up their efforts to combat climate change, stressing that the 1.5°C target is still within reach, but only if there is a drastic and immediate reduction in emissions. He called for an end to the fossil fuel era and a transition to a green economy, urging the G20 nations to lead by example
From November 11th to the 22nd, nations will convene in Baku, Azerbaijan, for the annual United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29). The focus of the conference will be to advance last year’s landmark agreement aimed at transitioning away from fossil fuels. These negotiations will be pivotal in shaping each country’s revised emissions-reduction plan, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which are expected to be finalized by February 2025. COP29 will serve as a critical platform for countries to enhance their climate strategies and commitments in line with global warming targets.
References:
Global temperatures set to soar as emissions reach record levels – DailyJang
