Anyone paying even a little attention to the real estate market this summer has noticed things are getting complicated. After another busy spring, the housing world hit a curious crossroads in June: buyers and sellers are peering at each other across a growing inventory, prices are reaching record heights, and yet, activity is not living up to the drama you might expect from those headlines. It feels like the market is caught in a holding pattern, and that stasis is frustrating for nearly everyone involved.
Let’s start with the big picture. The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of previously owned homes dipped to an annualized rate of 3.93 million units in June. That was 2.7% fewer than in May, a much steeper drop than the 0.7% analysts had anticipated. Yet, compared with a year ago, the number didn’t budge. This annual flatline might sound like the market is running in place, but underneath it are real shifts in both inventory and prices.
What’s remarkable is that even with sales frozen at last year’s level, the number of homes for sale has moved in the opposite direction. By the end of June, there were 1.53 million existing homes on the market across the country. That is almost 16% more than a year ago and marks the highest count since the pandemic upended normal real estate rhythms. It would be easy to assume that surging supply leads to lower prices, but this year’s market is sticking to its own script.
Despite buyers having more choices, the median price for existing homes in June did not cool off. Instead, it set a record for this time of year. Prices kept climbing year-over-year, even as sales volume stayed stubbornly stuck. For homeowners, especially those who bought before the pandemic’s price run-up, that’s a reassuring sign. It demonstrates just how deeply the current shortage of new construction is influencing the market. There may be more resale homes available now than a year ago, but it’s still not enough to meet the pent-up demand created by years of underbuilding, and the shadow of high mortgage rates is never far from the story.
Mortgage rates have hovered near two-decade highs, with the average 30-year rate recently just under 7%. That added cost means today’s buyers either need to put down more money or settle for less house, while many potential sellers, sitting on far lower rates, are reluctant to give up their enviable monthly payments. This dynamic is particularly confounding for first-time buyers, who see their path to ownership blocked on both the affordability and availability fronts. It is a feedback loop, and the summer market is feeling the effects.
One clear takeaway from these trends is that housing’s affordability crisis is not cooling off. The combination of high prices, high borrowing costs, and only a modest uptick in choices has not produced the typical summer surge in sales. Instead, the market is locked into a slow-motion arm-wrestle between buyers and sellers: sellers are emboldened by their home values, while would-be buyers are faced with financial barriers that many cannot overcome. This stalemate underscores why so many families are staying put, moving only if they absolutely have to.
The regional numbers hint at subtle variations. While the national statistics suggest stagnation, some metropolitan areas have seen their local markets stir with slightly stronger activity, particularly in the Midwest and South. Meanwhile, more expensive regions in the West are seeing the biggest dips in sales as buyers there contend with especially daunting price tags and borrowing costs.
As the summer wears on, it becomes clear that the U.S. housing market remains in flux, unable to break free from the forces that have shaped the past several years. Anyone hoping for a gradual easing of prices or a flood of bargains should temper their expectations. The reality is nuanced and, at least for now, frustratingly stable.
For buyers, there is more to choose from, but less to celebrate in terms of price relief. For sellers, the advantage of surging values is neutralized by a smaller pool of ready buyers. Unless interest rates take a sharp turn downward, or a wave of new construction hits the market, the current situation may persist well into next year.Â
