Lake Resources NL
Improved Economics and Lithium Recovery Boost Outlook
Published: Aug 8, 2025
Author: FRC Analysts
*Lake Resources NL has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions.
Sector: Basic Materials | Industry: Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Ticker Symbols: LKE – ASX
Report Highlights
* Qualified Person: Andrew Fulton, Independent Consultant of Lake Resources NL.
- Lake Resources has completed an updated Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) on its Kachi lithium brine project located in Catamarca province in northwestern Argentina. The project is located near Ganfeng Lithium’s (SZSE: 002460/MCAP: US$9B) recently commissioned Mariana lithium project.
- The DFS returned an AT-NPV10% of US$1B, and AT-IRR of 20%, using US$20.4k/t LCE (Lithium Carbonate Equivalent) vs the current spot price of US$9.9k/t. While the study did not disclose NPV at spot, we estimate break-even at approximately US$15k/t LCE.
- Key highlights of the study vs the previous 2023 DFS include a 3% reduction in OPEX to US$5,895/t, and a 16% reduction in CAPEX to US$1.16B.
- Resources increased by 4% to 11.1 Mt LCE. M&I resources account for 74% of total resources (previously 69%), implying increased confidence.
- After a two-year downturn, lithium prices are turning around, a rebound we forecasted earlier this year. Prices have jumped 18% in the past month, though they remain down 9% YoY, and 88% from their late 2022 peak. Current levels are below the break-even point for most new large-scale projects, and we believe a sustained price of at least US$15k/t is necessary to incentivize development. We expect this rebound to continue as the market moves toward a projected 2026 supply deficit. This deficit will be driven by battery demand from core EV and energy storage markets, as well as from rapidly growing sectors like AI data centers, robotics, and automation.
- LKE is trading at just US$4/t LCE vs the sector average of US$31/t.
- Management anticipates Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) approval by the end of the year. The latest DFS enhances Kachi’s market appeal, and with improving sentiment, we believe the prospects for M&A or securing a strategic partner to move Kachi toward production have strengthened.
Price and Volume (1-year)
Kachi Lithium Brine Project
Fundamental Research Corp. Equity Rating Scale:
Fundamental Research Corp. Equity Rating Scale (ratings are not a recommendation to acquire, dispose of, or take no action regarding a security; the definition of our ratings are explained below):
- Buy – Fair value is 12% above the current market price; or risk and reward is favorable
- Hold – Fair value is between 5% to 12% above the current market price
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- Suspended or Rating N/A – Coverage and ratings suspended until more information can be obtained from the company regarding recent events.
Fundamental Research Corp. – Risk Rating Scale:
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Disclaimers and Disclosure
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Any “forward looking statements” are our best estimates and opinions based upon information that is publicly available and that we believe to be correct, but we have not independently verified with respect to truth or correctness. There is no guarantee that our forecasts will materialize. Actual results will likely vary. The analyst and Fundamental Research Corp.
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Annual fees ranging from $15,000 to $30,000 have been paid to FRC by Lake Resources NL to commission this report and research coverage including update reports. This fee creates a potential conflict of interest which readers should consider. FRC takes steps to mitigate conflicts including setting fees in advance and utilizing analysts who must abide by CFA Institute Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct. Additionally, analysts may not trade in any security under coverage. Our full editorial control of all research, timing of release of the reports, and release of liability for negative reports are protected contractually. The issuer has agreed to a minimum coverage term and coverage cannot be unilaterally terminated. Distribution procedure: our reports are distributed first to our web-based subscribers on the date shown on this report then made available to delayed access users through various other channels for a limited time.
The distribution of FRC’s ratings are as follows: BUY (71%), HOLD (3%), SELL / SUSPEND (26%). Lake Resources NL
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