POLITICS
USA
SEMI-CONDUCTOR Battle Royal
The US plans to restrict shipments of AI chips from the likes of Nvidia to Malaysia and Thailand, part of an effort to crack down on suspected semiconductor smuggling into China.
“Although the rule is not yet final, it marks the first step in Trump’s broader overhaul of AI-related export controls. Chinese companies rent servers in Southeast Asian data centres (DCs) to indirectly access Nvidia’s advanced AI chips, a likely reason for the proposed curbs by Trump, notes Maybank.
The proposal introduces uncertainty for Malaysia and Thailand’s growing roles as an emerging Asean/global DC hub. According to a recent Barclays report, the current data centre capacity in the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone is just 10 megawatts but data centre construction is underway to increase that to 1.5 gigawatts, raising fears of a Forest City-type situation for data centres. The restrictions could be a blessing in disguise, curbing oversupply of data centre-build, market-watchers indicate.
Maybank points out that Chinese technology giants are key drivers behind the rapid growth of DCs in Asean. “Bytedance, owner of TikTok, has committed substantial investments in Asean DC infrastructure (US$8.8 billion in Thailand and US$2.1 billion in Malaysia), aiming to support its massive user base locally and to help comply with data regulations,” the Maybank report says.
Alibaba Cloud, Tencent Cloud and Huawei have also expanded operations across the region to meet rising digital demand. Additionally, DayOne, which is GDS’s international division, has signed a 21-year agreement with Tenaga to secure up to 500 MW of renewable (solar) energy to power its Malaysian DCs. Meanwhile, GDS has filed for the IPO of a data centre REIT on the Shanghai Exchange.
“Whether these companies are indirectly using Asean to access and run AI models is debatable, we do note that a major portion of Asean’s DC boom is led by Chinese companies,” Maybank says. If the Bloomberg report is true, Maybank says the companies in the supply chain such as Gamuda, Sunway Construction, IJM and Tenaga on Bursa; and WHA Corp PCL and Amata Corp PCL on the SET, which are developing industrial estates in Thailand, may experience near-term pressure due to demand uncertainty.”
This issue ties into the development as you may have seen in August with the Government of the United States under Trump taking 10% of Intel.
TRUMP’S TARIFF GAMES CONTINUE
US President Donald Trump hit Brazil with 50% tariffs specifically tying his tariffs there to the trial of Bolsonaro, who is charged with trying to overturn his 2022 election loss. Trump has described Bolsonaro as a friend and hosted the former Brazilian president at his Mar-a-Lago resort when both were in power in 2020.
“This Trial should not be taking place,” Trump wrote in the letter posted on Truth Social. “It is a Witch Hunt that should end IMMEDIATELY!”
- Brazil’s vice-president, Geraldo Alckmin, said he sees “no reason” for the U.S. to hike tariffs on the South American nation.
“I think he has been misinformed,” Alckmin said of Trump. “President Lula was jailed for almost two years. No one questioned the judiciary. No one questioned what the country had done. This is a matter for our judiciary branch.”
Pakistan seeks to leverage rare earths to woo Trump and avoid tariffs
Chile seeks to leverage copper in Trade talks with Trump administration
Indonesia says it will sign $34 billion pact with US partners ahead of tariff
China issues warning to Trump over tariffs, threatens supply chains
US set to impose 93.5% tariff on key battery material from China
The US Commerce Department will impose preliminary anti-dumping duties of 93.5% on imports of Chinese graphite, a key battery component, after concluding the materials had been unfairly subsidized.
“A trade association representing US graphite producers in December filed petitions with two federal agencies, asking for investigations into whether Chinese companies were violating anti-dumping laws. The new duties will add to existing rates making the effective tariff 160%, according to the American Active Anode Material Producers, the trade group that filed the complaint.” – US Set to Impose 93.5% Duty on China Battery Material | Financial Post
Meanwhile in the month of July:
The United States stated the intention of imposing 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea.
White House letters to South Korea and Japan
→ After months of negotiations, the two countries struck a deal to lower the so-called “reciprocal tariffs” to 15% from a proposed 25%, and said increased rice shipments from the U.S. to Japan was part of that deal. Japan will immediately increase imports of U.S. rice by 75%
Japan will invest $550 billion directed by the United States to rebuild and expand core American industries. As part of this agreement, imports from Japan will be subject to a baseline 15% tariff rates.
- This is the single largest foreign investment commitment ever secured by any country and will generate hundreds of thousands of U.S. jobs, expand domestic manufacturing, and secure American prosperity for generations.
- At President Trump’s direction, these funds will be targeted toward the revitalization of America’s strategic industrial base, including:
- Energy infrastructure and production, including LNG, advanced fuels, and grid modernization;
- Semiconductor manufacturing and research, rebuilding U.S. capacity from design to fabrication;
- Critical minerals mining, processing, and refining, ensuring access to essential inputs;
- Pharmaceutical and medical production, ending U.S. dependence on foreign-made medicines and supplies;
- Commercial and defense shipbuilding, including new yards and modernization of existing facilities.
- The United States will retain 90% of the profits from this investment—ensuring that American workers, taxpayers, and communities reap the overwhelming share of the benefit.
- This capital surge, combined with the trillions already secured under President Trump’s leadership, will be a key component of a once-in-a-century industrial revival.
Germany – the country that stands to lose the most from a potential 30% US import tariff on European goods. Over the past 12 months, Germany recorded a trade surplus of €68.8bn w/the US, though that surplus has already started to decline slightly.
New York Mayor runner up – new contender
Zohran Mamdani
Profile → Zohran K. Mamdani – Assembly District 36 |Assembly Member Directory | New York State Assembly
Big Beautiful Bill Passed July 4th
From the White House:
Trump signs GENIUS ACT into law
“The GENIUS Act claims to create a clear and simple regulatory framework to establish & unleash the immense promise of dollar-backed stablecoins. This could be perhaps the biggest modern revolution in financial technology since the birth of the internet itself.”
Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Signs GENIUS Act into Law – The White House
From White House:
- The GENIUS Act prioritizes consumer protection, strengthens the U.S. dollar’s reserve currency status, and bolsters our national security. By driving demand for U.S. Treasuries, stablecoins will play a crucial role in ensuring the continued global dominance of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
- The GENIUS Act will generate increased demand for U.S. debt and cement the dollar’s status as the global reserve currency by requiring stablecoin issuers to back their assets with Treasuries and U.S. dollars.
- Additionally, the GENIUS Act will play a key role in attracting more digital asset activity to the country by providing clear rules and promoting responsible innovation in the stablecoin market.
- The GENIUS Act will make America the undisputed leader in digital assets, bringing massive investment and innovation to our country.
An advisor for the bank for international settlements says the worldwide financial system needs to rewrite its rules for a tokenized future
“The rules of the monetary system are changing and stablecoins are right at the front line of the policy debate,” said Shin Hyun-song, BIS’ economic adviser and the head of its monetary and economic department, during an interview with the Post on Monday in Hong Kong. “[Stablecoin] is a borderless instrument used mainly as the gateway to the crypto ecosystem and other decentralised finance platforms, but it also generates many new types of challenges.”
TRUMP Sends in the Troops
Massive joint federal immigration operation in downtown LA while the mayor of LA wanted them out.
CHINA Blackout Bomb
RUSSIA & UKRAINE WAR
Trump said the US will send Patriot missiles to Ukraine. He states that the EU will pay for the missiles which will give USA business with EU money. While helping to defend Ukraine.
Donald Trump, at a meeting with NATO Secretary General, stated that the US will send all kinds of weapons to Ukraine
EU Rolled out 18th Round of Oil Sanctions
The new measures focus on five building blocks: cutting Russia’s energy revenues, hitting Russia’s banking sector, further weakening its military-industrial complex, strengthening anti-circumvention measures, and holding Russia accountable for its crimes against Ukrainian children and cultural heritage. With this package, the number of listed vessels in Russia’s shadow fleet reaches a total of 444 vessels, and the number of individual listings exceeds 2,500. This package also includes new sanctions against Belarus
→ EU adopted 18th package of sanctions against Russia.
UKRAINE CURROPTION PROBLEM
*EU cut aid to Ukraine over corruption concerns. Zelensky Reversed course after EU pressured and protests over Anti-Corruption crackdown.
The European Commission slashed nearly €1.5 billion in aid and warned that Kyiv’s EU future depends on shielding anti-corruption bodies investigating the president’s inner circle. EU officials said Ukraine had not fulfilled several promised reforms, including in decentralization, the selection of judges for the High Anti-Corruption Court, and restructuring of the Asset Recovery and Management Agency (ARMA).
On July 24, Zelensky unexpectedly reversed course and submitted a bill designed to restore the independence of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO). His earlier legislative push had aimed to bring those bodies under executive control, prompting backlash from civil society and international partners.
Kyiv now has up to 12 months to pass the required laws to unlock the remaining funds. Brussels has made clear that future tranches will hinge on credible, irreversible reforms and an end to executive encroachment on independent oversight bodies.
→ Zelensky Reverses Course After EU Pressure and Protests Over Anti-Corruption Crackdown | OCCRP
Protests erupt against Ukrainian President Zelensky in Kiev.
SYRIA
Syria’s government troops entered the Sweida region following deadly clashes, while Israel carried out strikes against them, saying it was acting to protect the Druze minority. Israel explained its attacks in the heart of the capital and on pro-government forces in Sweida as a defensive move in support of the Druze community, which has a significant presence within Israel and in the Israeli-occupied Golan.
The strikes on the defense ministry in Damascus also hit an area near the presidential palace, according to news reports and Syrian authorities.
Israeli attacks military HQ in Damascus, Syria
The new war in Syria is in full swing. The Israeli-backed Druze are seceding from the new Syria under the control of ISIS and Al Qaeda.
Netanyahu announces demilitarization and occupation of the region to south of Damascus, from the Golan Heights and to the Druze Mountain area.
President Ahmed Al-Sharaa leaves Syria’s capital following reports of an Israeli assassination operation in Damascus.
IRAN
Iran announced the arrest of 50 Israeli collaborators and two others killed while trying to flee the country. The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.) says over 50 terrorists and mercenaries linked to the Israeli regime have been arrested and two others killed in recent operations in southern Sistan and Baluchestan province.
→ I.R.G.C. arrests 50 Israeli-linked terrorists and mercenaries in southeast Iran – IRNA English
Oil prices jumped 3% when Iran suspended cooperation with UN nuclear watchdog
Tucker Carlson interview with IRAN President
Turkey
Turkey officially unveils a hypersonic ballistic missile called Tayfun Block-4 today.
MYANMAR
The global supply of heavy rare earths hinges in part on the outcome of a months-long battle between a rebel army and the Chinese-backed military junta in the hills of northern Myanmar
FRANCE IN WEST AFRICA
France handed over control of its last major military facility in Senegal, marking the end of its armed forces’ long presence in the West African country and a milestone in a withdrawal from the wider region
CAMBODIA & THAILAND
Fierce clashes have erupted along the Thailand-Cambodia border!
The Royal Cambodian Army has shelled multiple border towns in Thailand using multiple-launch rocket systems.
The Ministry of Defense of Thailand confirms that F-16 fighter jets of the Royal Thai Air Force have carried out multiple precision airstrikes against Cambodian positions along the border.
July 28th, both nations agreed to an ‘immediate and unconditional ceasefire’. At least 33 people have been killed and thousands displaced since the deadly escalation occurred. The talks were held after US President Donald Trump asked both nations to agree to a ceasefire as a pre-condition to their respective trade talks with Washington.
ECONOMICS
Central bank holdings of government debt:
• Japan: Over 50% of all outstanding government debt
• United Kingdom: Approaching 50% of the outstanding debt
• Eurozone: Nearly one-third of outstanding sovereign bonds
• United States: Around one-quarter of all U.S. Treasury debt
FED – Held rates fixed @ 4.25% to 4.5%
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement→ Federal Reserve Board – Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
Trump really wants him to lower rates.
- It would help support the very high stock market.
- It would lower the cost of the over leveraged government, and the over leveraged real estate market.
- Help deflect the US economy from deflation.
ECB
Held rates fixed. The interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will remain unchanged at 2.00%, 2.15% and 2.40% respectively.
– Monetary policy decisions
The ECB’s monetary policy strategy statement 2025 Source → The ECB’s monetary policy strategy statement (2025)
The Updates
- Governing Council confirms symmetric 2% inflation target over the medium term
- Symmetry requires appropriately forceful or persistent policy response to large, sustained deviations of inflation from target in either direction
- All tools remain in toolkit and their choice, design and implementation will enable an agile response to new shocks
- Structural shifts such as geopolitical and economic fragmentation and increasing use of artificial intelligence make the inflation environment more uncertain
Governing council of the ECB said the ECB’s best unconventional instrument for steering monetary policy is a large scale asset purchase.
PBOC
- its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged on Monday. The one-year and five-year LPRs were at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively
BoC
Held rates fixed the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%. → Bank of Canada holds policy rate at 2¾% – Bank of Canada
US ECONOMY
The US M2 money supply jumped +4.5% Y/Y in May, to a record $21.94 trillion.
This marks the 19th consecutive monthly increase.
Since 2020, the US M2 money supply has risen nearly $7 trillion, or ~45%.
The Treasury released their borrowing estimates.
$1.6T in net new debt issuance over the next two quarters. About $500B of it is the TGA refill.
JOB Market
According to ADP, June had the biggest drop in service jobs since the US economy shut down in March 2020 for covid
US corporate bankruptcies are at RECESSION levels:
US large bankruptcies hit 371 year-to-date, the most since 2010, a year after the Financial Crisis.
In April, May, and June 59, 63, and 64 filings were recorded.
Foreign Investors now own $2.5 Trillion more in U.S. Stocks than U.S. Debt, the widest gap ever
US Inflation Expectations
US money supply just reached all-time highs again.
U.S. Margin Debt soars above $1 Trillion for the first time in history
US STOCK MARKET
NASDAQ CLOSED AT A NEW ALL-TIME HIGH ABOVE 21,000 in July
NASDAQ 100 futures closes the month with a record.
MICROSOFT
After fantastic figures, Microsoft has crossed the $4 TRILLION market value.
CHINA
Global money supply is SOARING:
China’s M1 surged +4.6% Y/Y, an acceleration as stimulus kicks in.
China’s M1 is larger than the US’s M1 ex-savings deposits, and is a 3rd of the G10’s.
China’s $16 trillion M1 is DOUBLE the US’s, and it’s the top driver of global liquidity.
China, the third-largest Treasury holder, saw its holdings decline $900 million in May, to $756.3 billion, the lowest in 16 years.
However, Belgium, whose holdings include Chinese custodial accounts, saw its stockpile go up by $4.5 billion.
UK
TURKEY
Turkey’s inflation comes in at 35.1%/yr.
Turkey’s money supply (M3) is growing at 43.3%/yr. That’s FAR ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 12.4%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting Turkey’s 5%/yr inflation target.
JAPAN
Japanese Stocks relative to Government Bonds are closing in on the all-time high set all the way back in 1989
Japan 20-Year Government Bond Yield went to Highest Since 1999
Japan 10-Year Government Bond Yield went to Highest Since 2008
Demand for Japanese 40-Year Bonds plunged to weakest level in 14 years
A May 30 IMF report urged Bolivia to implement “credible fiscal consolidation” to streamline wages, eliminate fuel subsidies, improve public spending efficiency, and increase tax revenue. It also emphasized ending central bank deficit financing, highlighting that public debt has risen to 95% of GDP despite constrained external conditions.
BRICS
BRIC’s New Development Bank held its 10th Annual Meeting on July 5th.
NDB’s Board of Governors approved the accession of two new members: Columbia and Uzbekistan. This brings the group’s membership to 11: Brasil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Bangladesh, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Algeria, and the two new countries. Not all NDB members are part of BRICS.
BRICS is about to launch an investment fund managed by the New Development Bank for member states, to rival the World Bank.
President Donald Trump said he would put an additional 10% tariff on any country aligning themselves with “the Anti-American policies of BRICS,” injecting further uncertainty as the US continues to negotiate levies with trading partners.
BRICS now accounts for 40% of global GDP (PPP), G7 is less than 29%.
ASEAN Meeting
Foreign ministers of ASEAN gathered in Kuala Lumpar for the 58th assembly meeting.
EU & COMMODITIES
On 9th July, the European Commission (DG ECHO – European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations) published a communication which calls for an EU Stockpiling Strategy, covering a series of “goods”, including critical raw materials such as PGMs.The EU Commission said that the EU should develop emergency stockpiles of medicine, generators and critical raw materials to be better prepared for a pandemic or natural disaster, and for a military invasion as concerns mount over the EU’s vulnerability to attacks.
By 2026, the EU intends to set up a Critical Raw Materials Centre to jointly buy certain materials on behalf of interested companies, which could also be tasked with organising stockpiles. Should assist in jointly purchasing raw materials, coordinate strategic stockpiles, oversee supply chain monitoring, and encourage investments (already mentioned in the Clean Industrial Deal).
In general, the Strategy aims to:
- Improve access to essential goods under all circumstances.
- Improve interoperability of stockpiling systems both at national and EU level throughout the entire stockpiling cycle – planning, purchasing, managing and deploying the stocks.
DOD & Commodities
The U.S. Department of Defense plans to continue investing in critical minerals projects to ensure a diverse American supply of the building blocks for weapons and many electronics. The Pentagon signed a multibillion-dollar deal last week to become the largest shareholder in rare earths producer MP Materials and also agreed to several financial backstop measures for the company.
CHINA Stockpiles Nickel Reserves
According to the Financial Times, China has consistently been acquiring high-purity “class one” nickel, significantly increasing its reserves by approximately 100,000 tons since the start of the year.
- It is estimated that China previously held about 60,000 to 100,000 tons of nickel reserves before this recent purchasing period, suggesting the current acquisitions have likely doubled its holdings.
- According to Chinese government data, the nation imported 77,654 tons of nickel from January to May 2025, marking the highest recorded volume since 2019.
Between the lines: This demand surge also reflects China taking advantage of lower nickel prices, which is currently trading around $15,000 per ton, down from its previous peak of $30,000 per ton.
→ China’s Nickel Buying Surges, Doubling National Reserves
GOLD
GOLD moved first reaching ATH of $3452.50 USD
Tier 1 Classification
US Banks can now officially classify physical gold as a Tier 1 asset as Basel III which went into effect July 1st, 2025. This is expected to boost institutional demand as banks seek to hold more allocated gold, reducing exposure to riskier “paper” gold. Recognized as a zero-risk reserve asset, gold’s safe-haven appeal grows, making it a strategic tool for banks to strengthen balance sheets amid tighter global regulations.
India Regulators
India’s markets regulator has proposed to mandate that asset management companies use spot prices published by domestic commodity exchanges to value gold and silver. SEBI said the proposed changes are expected to bring uniformity in valuation of gold and silver throughout the mutual fund industry, and for investments made by the gold and silver exchange traded funds
2025 WORLD GOLD COUNCIL’s Central Bank Gold Reserve SURVEY
Nineteen out of 36 respondents in the World Gold Council’s latest central bank survey said they are buying gold directly from domestic artisanal and small-scale gold miners IN LOCAL CURRENCY.
SOURCE: Central Banks buying more domestically produced Gold
Key highlights
- Similar to findings from previous surveys, central banks continue to hold favourable expectations on gold. Respondents overwhelmingly (95%) believe that global central bank gold reserves will increase over the next 12 months.
- This year, a record 43% of respondents believe that their own gold reserves will also increase over the same period. Interestingly, none of our respondents anticipate a decline in their gold reserves.
- Gold’s performance during times of crisis, portfolio diversification and inflation hedging are some key themes driving plans to accumulate more gold over the coming year. In addition, gold’s unique characteristics and role as a strategic asset continue to be valued by central banks: its performance in times of crisis, ability to act as a store of value, and its role as an effective diversifier, continue to be cited as key reasons for an allocation to gold.
- The majority of respondents (73%) see moderate or significantly lower US dollar holdings within global reserves over the next five years. Respondents also believe that the share of other currencies, such as the euro and renminbi, as well as gold, will increase over the same period.
- The survey highlighted an uptick in respondents who actively manage their gold reserves, from 37% in 2024 to 44% in 2025. While enhancing returns remained the primary reason for this, risk management leapfrogged tactical trading as the second most selected reason.
- The Bank of England remains the most popular vaulting location for gold reserves amongst respondents (64%); a significantly higher percentage of respondents reported some domestic storage of gold reserves this year than they did last year (59% in 2025 vs 41% in 2024). Just 7% of respondents indicated that they plan to increase domestic storage of gold reserves over the next 12 months.
SOURCE: Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2025 | World Gold Council
Russia to begin trading gold on the St. Petersburg Exchange
Key Motivations Behind the New Exchange:
- Price Independence: Creating national price indicators based on domestic supply and demand rather than international benchmarks
- BRICS Integration: Opening the exchange to BRICS nations and their traders
- Alternative Market Creation: Developing a competing system to Western-dominated exchanges
- De-dollarization Support: Reducing reliance on USD-based trading systems
The St. Petersburg Exchange will complement Russia’s existing gold trading platform at the Moscow Stock Exchange, which already serves banks and the central bank. The new exchange infrastructure generates domestic price indicators using real-time supply-demand algorithms, replacing London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) benchmarks.
SERBIA Wants its Gold
Serbia’s central bank plans to bring all of its roughly $6 billion worth of gold reserves back home to ensure security.This makes Serbia the first eastern European country not to hold any of its bullion in traditional hubs like Switzerland, the UK and the US.
“By returning gold to the country, the National Bank of Serbia sought to increase the availability and security of gold reserves in periods of crisis and uncertainty,” the central bank said in response to questions, adding that the repatriation efforts began in 2021 amid “an environment of increased global uncertainty.”
SILVER
In July, Silver spot price hit $39.53 USD, a price not seen since September 2011. Silver is at a 14 year high.
COPPER Hits a New High
When Trump announced possible tariffs on Copper, we saw its price move aggressively from $5/Ibs to $5.9/Ibs in a single day, hitting its ATH of $5.985 a few days later.
ENERGY & INFRASTRUCTURE
Trafigura-owned Greenergy has begun consultations on a proposal to halt production at one of its two UK biodiesel plants, as uncertainty about the country’s biofuels industry grows.
“Despite significant cost reductions to improve the plant’s viability, the Immingham plant has continued to be negatively impacted by market factors, including slower increases in the UK’s biofuels blending mandates compared to European countries and competition from subsidised US-origin products,” Greenergy said in a statement.
Greenergy CEO Adam Trager commented, “In light of continuing market pressures, we unfortunately do not have enough certainty on the outlook for UK biofuels policy to make the substantial investments required to create a competitive operation at Immingham.”
China leading in Train Development
China’s Maglev train just clocked 620 mph in June — that’s faster than most commercial airplanes. This is the next phase of ultra-high-speed travel. The train is based on magnetic levitation tech and zero physical contact with the tracks.
APPLE mineral DEAL
Apple just signed a $500 million deal to secure rare-earth minerals from a U.S. producer. This company just secured backing from the Pentagon. Apple and MP Materials will launch an all-new recycling facility for processing recycled rare earth elements.
→ Apple expands U.S. supply chain with $500 million commitment – Apple
BITCOIN
Bitcoin crossed the $120,000 level for the first time, marking a major milestone for the world’s largest cryptocurrency as investors bet on long-sought policy wins for the industry this week
CULTURE
Mexico riots protests against foreigners
Kenyan police fired tear gas and water cannon to disperse protesters in the capital Nairobi as they marked the 35th anniversary of pro-democracy rallies
10 KILLED and 29 injured in Kenyan riots – Kenya Human Rights Commission
Cities on lockdown as demonstrators demand President William Ruto resign
Police accused of brutality against civilians
P. Diddy gets away?
Nic Tartaglia’s MacroΩInsights
I am obsessed with the macro world, where I seek to dissect and understand the ever-changing dynamics of the world on a monthly basis through a Political, Cultural & Economic lens.
