Antrim Investments Ltd.
FY2025 Results Reflect Strong Growth, Yield, and Credit Quality
Published: Oct 2, 2025
Author: FRC Analysts
*Antrim Investments Ltd. has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions.
Sector: N/A | Industry: Mortgage Investment
Ticker Symbols:
Report Highlights
- Mortgage Receivables: In FY2025 (year ended June 2025), mortgage receivables increased 3% YoY to $912M, slightly above our September 2024 report’s forecast of $910M. Antrim remains one of the largest Mortgage Investment Corporations (MICs) in Canada.
- Yield and Earnings: The yield rose to 8.53% in FY2025 (FY2024: 7.24%), ahead of our 8.03% forecast, driven by higher lending rates. Revenue grew 9% YoY (3% above forecast), while net income rose 25% YoY (10% above forecast).
- As Antrim’s mortgages are fixed-rate, average lending rates declined more slowly than the broader market. The weighted average lending rate fell just 0.36 pp (from 9.77% to 9.41%) between June 2024 and June 2025, compared to a 200 bps decline in market rates over the same period.
- Portfolio Mix: The portfolio remains focused on first mortgages on single-family homes. As of June 2025, 61% of mortgages were in B.C., 32% in Ontario, and 84% were first mortgages.
- Credit Quality: Impaired/foreclosed mortgages increased slightly from 2.4% to 2.6% of receivables, but remain well below the sector average of 6.0%, reflecting superior credit quality. The portfolio is further supported by a conservative weighted average loan-to-value (LTV) of 60%.
- Macro Backdrop: Since June 2024, the Bank of Canada has cut rates eight times (totaling 250 bps), bringing the policy rate to 2.50%. We believe one more cut is possible over the next six months amid slowing GDP growth, elevated trade tensions, and high unemployment. While delinquencies remain a concern, easing monetary policy should help mitigate risks.
- Outlook: We find high-yielding funds such as Antrim increasingly attractive in a declining rate environment. MIC lending rates tend to be less elastic, declining less in falling rate environments, and rising more slowly in rising rate environments. We project a yield of 7.64% in FY2026 (vs. 8.53% in FY2025).
Fundamental Research Corp. Equity Rating Scale:
Fundamental Research Corp. Equity Rating Scale (ratings are not a recommendation to acquire, dispose of, or take no action regarding a security; the definition of our ratings are explained below):
- Buy – Fair value is 12% above the current market price; or risk and reward is favorable
- Hold – Fair value is between 5% to 12% above the current market price
- Sell – Fair value is 5% above, or less, than the current market value; or risk and reward is unfavorable
- Suspended or Rating N/A – Coverage and ratings suspended until more information can be obtained from the company regarding recent events.
Fundamental Research Corp. – Risk Rating Scale:
- (Low Risk) – The company operates in an industry where it has a strong position (for example a monopoly, high market share etc.) or operates in a regulated industry. The future outlook is stable or positive for the industry. The company generates positive free cash flow and has a history of profitability. The capital structure is conservative with little or no debt.
- (Below Average Risk) – The company operates in an industry where the fundamentals and outlook are positive. The industry and company are relatively less sensitive to systematic risk than companies with a Risk Rating of 3. The company has a history of profitability and has demonstrated its ability to generate positive free cash flows (though current free cash flow may be negative due to capital investment). The company’s capital structure is conservative with little to modest use of debt.
- (Average Risk) – The company operates in an industry that has average sensitivity to systematic risk. The industry may be cyclical. Profits and cash flow are sensitive to economic factors although the company has demonstrated its ability to generate positive earnings and cash flow. Debt use is in line with industry averages, and coverage ratios are sufficient.
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