Tungsten market fundamentals have strengthened materially, supported by higher benchmark APT prices that have recently moved above US$1,000/MTU amid robust defence-driven demand and a tightening supply environment. China’s export controls implemented in 2025 have reinforced structural supply constraints and accelerated Western efforts to diversify sourcing. Against this backdrop, we adopt a higher long-term price framework, increasing our APT assumption to US$800/MTU from US$450/MTU previously.
Operationally, Almonty has transitioned into its next growth phase with the Sangdong Tungsten Mine entering active operations in December 2025 and commencing a staged ramp-up toward nameplate capacity by 2027. Beyond Sangdong, the company is advancing multiple levers for medium-term growth, including capacity expansion at Panasqueira, reserve definition at the Sangdong Molybdenum project, and development progress at Gentung Browns Lake toward potential production readiness in 2H26. Reflecting improved pricing assumptions and clearer production visibility, we update our fair value estimate to C$19.30 per share (from C$7.69 previously) and maintain a HOLD rating.
Investment Highlights
- Almonty Industries Inc. (TSX: AII, ASX: AII, OTC: ALMTF, FRA: ALI) (“Almonty” or the “Company”) is a multi-asset owner that develops and operates tungsten projects. Its assets include development projects and a producing mine. The Company’s share price has increased approximately 25x (2,445%) since our initial coverage report in February 2023.
- Higher tungsten prices: Benchmark APT prices have recently moved above US$1,000/MTU, with spot levels cited around US$1,125 to US$1,150/MTU, driven by strong demand from defence-related end markets and a tighter supply environment. China, which controls more than 80% of global tungsten supply, has imposed export controls in 2025, reinforcing supply constraints and accelerating efforts by Western economies to diversify sourcing away from Chinese production. These market dynamics support a structurally higher tungsten price deck in our model. As such, we increase our APT price assumption to US$800/MTU versus the prior estimate of US$450/MTU.
- Ramp-up at Sangdong: The Sangdong Tungsten Mine entered active operations in December 2025 with the delivery of the first ore, marking the transition from construction to production and the start of ramp-up. The ramp-up is structured in two phases, with Phase 1 targeting a production rate of 640,000 tpa by mid- 2026, followed by Phase 2, which is expected to double capacity to approximately 1.2 million tpa by 2027.
- We update our fair value estimate to C$19.30 per share (earlier C$7.69) and maintain our HOLD rating.
Significant growth potential at other projects: Beyond Sangdong, Almonty Industries is advancing multiple growth initiatives. Drilling at Panasqueira supports expansion into a new Level 4, targeting potential output of up to ~124,000 MTUs and extended mine life. Sangdong Molybdenum (0.26% MoS₂) is progressing toward reserve definition, while Gentung Browns Lake is being advanced toward production readiness by 2H26, with potential output of ~140,000 MTUs.
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