Olympia Financial Group Inc.
AI Resilience & Client Asset Growth Beat
Published: May 22, 2026
Author: FRC Analysts
Disclosure: Olympia Financial Group Inc. has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions.
Company Details
Sector – Financial Services
Industry – Asset Management
Trading Information
Trading information – OLY.TO : TSX
Report Highlights
- Q1-2026 Results: Revenue -8% YoY, and -8% vs our estimate, driven by lower interest on unallocated client capital. Adj. EPS -43% YoY, on weaker interest revenue, and higher G&A expenses, and -11% vs our estimate. Dividends steady at $7.20/share (6.13% yield), in line.
- Client Assets: Client assets +4% QoQ to $13.7B (+0.8% vs est.). Core services revenue +8% YoY on higher transaction volumes, implying robust fundamentals. We expect continued services revenue growth, driven by strong demand for alternative investments, particularly Mortgage Investment Corporations (MICs), which form a meaningful share of client assets, and offer attractive yields in a low-rate environment.
- Interest Revenue Outlook: ~45% of revenue comes from interest on unallocated client capital held in cash accounts at major Canadian banks/credit unions. We expect stable rates through 2026 (unemployment easing since September 25 peak; inflation moderate), supporting interest revenue after recent declines.
- Growth Catalyst: Licensed in all provinces except Ontario; potential federal approval to expand into Ontario is a key catalyst.
- Valuation & AI Resilience: Trades at 9.2x EV/EBITDA vs sector average of 11.5x (20% discount). Wealth managers like Charles Schwab (NYSE: SCHW) and Raymond James (NYSE: RJF) are down ~10% YTD on AI disruption fears, while OLY is up 5% YTD. OLY remains largely insulated from AI disruption due to its regulated custodial/admin services for registered accounts (legal requirement, not AI-replaceable). The company also benefits from a strong Canadian niche with limited competition, particularly in alternative investments.
Price and Volume (1-year)
* Olympia Financial Group has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions. All figures in C$ unless otherwise specified.
The leading Canadian custodian/ administrator of alternative investments
Primary Services
- Investment Account Services (IAS): Trustee/custodian/administrator for self-directed registered investment accounts focused on alternative investments
- Private Health Services: Administration of health spending accounts for small/mid-sized corporations
- Corporate and Shareholder Services: Corporate trust and transfer agency (register maintenance, AGM support, dividend reinvestment)
- Raisr (Exempt Edge): IT services for exempt market dealers, issuers, and investment advisors
OLY’s platform supports a broad range of investments typically not offered by banks or traditional trading platforms
In Q1-2026, the revenue mix remained stable: 80% from IAS (81% in Q1-2025), 12% from private health services (11%), and 8% (7%) from other services
Source: Company / FRC
Client assets +4% QoQ to $13.7B, and +0.8% vs our forecast
Raising our 2026 year-end estimate, from $13.96B to $14.08B
In March 2026, OLY sold its currency division for $3.06M. The division provided FOREX and cross-border payment services for corporates and individuals, generating $5.18M in 2025 revenue, ~5% of group revenue. We view this as a pragmatic divestiture: (a) the division was unprofitable, with losses of $1M in 2025 , and $0.31M in Q1 – 2026; and (B) it was small, non-core, and outside OLY’s
Divests its currency division
main expertise. We believe the sale should allow OLY to focus on its higher-priority businesses.
Financials (Year-End: Dec 31st)
Q1 revenue -8% YoY, and -8% vs our estimate, driven by lower interest on unallocated client capital, with average rates 0.2 pp below our forecast
Notably, services revenue from core divisions (IAS and Private Health Services) was up 8% YoY, driven by higher transaction volumes
*The primary source of revenue in the “Trust, Interest, & Other” category is the interest earned on placing undeployed client capital in cash accounts at major Canadian banks.
*Service revenue includes annual and transaction fees
*‘Trust, interest, and other’ primarily includes interest revenue
Source: FRC / Company
G&A expenses rose 5% YoY, in line with our estimate
EPS (excluding gain on sale of the currency division) was down 43% YoY, primarily due to weaker interest revenue, and higher G&A expenses, missing our estimate by 11%
ource: Company/FRC
Annual dividends held steady at $7.20/year, aligning with our estimate
Source: Company/FRC
Strong, debt-free balance sheet, indicating very low risk of dividend cut or shortfall
FRC Projections and Valuation
Given the lower-than-expected interest revenue, we are lowering our revenue and EPS forecasts
The divested division also weighed on revenue, but not EPS, as we had projected a minor loss from that division
Source: FRC
As a result of lower interest revenue, our DCF valuation declined from $154 to $149/share
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