Energy Vault Holdings, Inc.
Record Backlog and AI Contract Strengthen Growth Trajector
Published: August 13, 2026
Author: FRC Analysts
Disclosure: Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions.
Report Highlights
- Backlog Surges on Largest Contract: NRGV’s contracted backlog rose to $2.0B (Q1: $1.35B), with ~60% from proprietary projects. The increase reflects a 1.25 GW Texas AI data center contract, NRGV’s largest to date, expected to generate $500–$600M in revenue over 18 months.
- Expanding Digital Infrastructure Opportunity: NRGV manages 1,066 MW of assets, unchanged QoQ, including 66 MW operational, with the remainder expected online within two to three years. Management targets $180M in annual EBITDA at full operation, and $1.8B+ by 2030, from a ~4.8 GW portfolio. We view this expansion into digital infrastructure as a major growth opportunity, driven by rising AI, cloud, and data center power demand.
- AI Infrastructure Boom: AI infrastructure is one of the fastest-growing technology markets, driven by the rapid adoption of AI. The global AI data center market grew from $66B (2021) to $147B (2025), and is projected to reach $811B by 2030 (24% CAGR; Grand View Research).
- Strong Revenue Growth, Higher Costs: Q2 revenue, driven primarily by third-party deployments, increased 104% YoY, and exceeded our estimate by 40%. However, operating expenses rose 36% YoY, 9% above our estimate, driving adjusted EPS from ($0.12) to ($0.14) vs our ($0.13) estimate.
- Higher Revenue Outlook, Near-Term EPS Pressure: We are raising our 2026/27 revenue forecasts on higher management guidance, and the new data center contract, while lowering our 2026 EPS forecast due to higher operating and interest expenses.
- Significant Valuation Discount: NRGV trades at 12.6x EBITDA vs. a peer average of 15.0x, a 16% discount, despite its expanding AI infrastructure opportunity and contracted backlog.
Price and Volume (1-year)
| YTD | 12M | |
| NRGV | -19% | 174% |
| NYSE | 11% | 20% |
| ZAP* | 13% | 16% |
* Energy Vault Holdings has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions. All figures in US$ unless otherwise specified.
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