Author: Atrium Research August 18, 2026
Nicholas Cortellucci, CFA | Equity Research Analyst | [email protected] | 647-391-3314
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What you need to know:
- Metals fell in June amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty, with gold down 10.4%, silver down 20.9%, and copper down 5.1%.
- Mining equities followed the metals lower, with the GDX down 15.7%, GDXJ down 17.6%, SILJ down 17.4%, and COPX down 12.7%, while the TSX was flat and the S&P 500 fell 1.2%.
- The U.S./Iran MOU signed in mid-June drove a sharp rally in precious metals and respective indices, though those gains have since faded on renewed regional escalation, leaving capital sidelined awaiting a true resolution.
Sentiment Update
The U.S./Iran conflict continued to dictate sector sentiment through June, with low liquidity persisting across the space as investors remained cautious awaiting a definitive resolution. The signing of a formal MOU between Presidents Trump and Pezeshkian on June 17th drove a sharp rally, with the GDX and GDXJ posting ~20% gains in the week leading up to the signing, alongside strong gains in precious metals. Those gains have since faded as renewed regional escalation tempered enthusiasm and the market reverted to risk-off positioning. The action through June reinforces our view that meaningful capital remains sidelined ready to redeploy once geopolitical risk subsides, with a true resolution likely the powerful catalyst the sector needs.
Our view echoes that of Metals Focus, which released its annual Gold Focus report, reiterating confidence that gold’s bull run will resume once the conflict settles, and forecasting global mine supply to grow 2.4% YoY in 2026. The report also highlighted that industry AISC rose 12% YoY in 2025 to $1,552/oz on higher royalties and inflation, though it was more than offset by record metal prices driving margin expansion for top producers.
On the critical minerals front, the U.S./China rare earth standoff intensified further, with Beijing adding MP Materials (MP:NYSE) and USA Rare Earth (USAR:NASDAQ) to its export control list, restricting both companies’ access to Chinese dual-use goods and technologies. The move came days after G7 countries agreed to cap rare earth imports from any single non-aligned country at less than 60% by 2030.
We had the pleasure of attending The Mining Investment Event in Quebec City this month (click here to read our company spotlights). With companies eager to advance projects and keep building momentum with stronger access to capital vs. prior years, we had the opportunity to meet with many management teams and will be watching for key catalysts in the coming months.
Gold pulled back 10.4% on the month while silver dropped sharply, down 20.9%, and copper dropped 5.1%. As a result, mining equities slid, with GDX down 15.7%, GDXJ down 17.6%, SILJ down 17.4%, and COPX down 12.7%, while broader indexes were mixed as the TSX was flat at 0.2% and the S&P 500 fell 1.2%. Silver has now erased all of its gains since surpassing $100/oz in January and is down ~17% YTD.
U.S. inflation accelerated to 4.2% YoY from 3.8% prior, in line with the 4.2% consensus, while headline MoM eased to 0.5% from 0.6%, also matching expectations. Core inflation ticked up to 2.9% YoY from 2.8%, in line with the 2.9% consensus, while core MoM eased to 0.2% from 0.4%, below the 0.3% expected. In Canada, inflation climbed to 3.2% YoY from 2.8% previously, above the 3.0% consensus, with MoM at 1.0% versus 0.8% expected and 0.4% prior.
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