In the midst of the high-stakes UAW vsBig Auto strike, investors face an uphill battle in justifying a bullish stance on Ford (F) and General Motors (GM), despite their seemingly attractive valuations. According to forward price-to-earnings ratios, Ford stands at 6.3 times and GM at a modest 4.9 times, in sharp contrast to the S&P 500’s 19.9 times. This valuation dissonance casts a stark light on the challenges confronting major automakers.
The automotive giants find themselves grappling with substantial losses attributed to the mandated shift towards electric vehicles (EVs) driven by government regulations. Ford’s EV division was slated to bleed $4.5 billion this fiscal year alone prior to the ratification of a new UAW contract. Meanwhile, General Motors faces significant financial hemorrhaging from its autonomous vehicle venture, Cruise.
Under the terms of the new UAW agreement, automakers are poised to shoulder a markedly higher cost base, potentially amplifying losses incurred through EV operations. Moreover, the UAW’s share of wages may exert additional pressure on profit margins within the traditional combustion engine sector, which has historically propped up the EV arm.
Compounding these challenges is the diminishing value of EV models, precipitated by an influx of more affordable offerings from GM and international automakers. JP Morgan analyst Ryan Brinkman predicts that the combined impact of depreciating EV prices and escalating wage costs could lead to a $2 to $3 billion dip in adjusted operating profits.
In stark contrast to their struggling counterparts, Tesla, in its non-unionized stance, stands poised to reap gains from the UAW vs Big Auto strike, as rivals grapple with mounting costs. Speculation even suggests that the UAW’s financial commitments may inadvertently propel Tesla towards its next major acquisition.
Ultimately, the ramifications of the ongoing strike loom ominously for Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis. The automotive sector faces a protracted period of stagnation, if not outright decline. Despite the ostensibly low valuations of Ford and GM, making a compelling case for investment amidst this environment of escalating costs and falling prices remains a Herculean task.
For discerning investors, it would be prudent to explore alternative avenues and vigilantly monitor developments emanating from the UAW strike, recognizing its potential to exert a transformative influence on the industry and the ultimate profitability of EVs.
Source: Yahoo Finance
