Author: Atrium Research September 01, 2026
Nicholas Cortellucci, CFA | Equity Research Analyst | [email protected] | 647-391-3314
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What you need to know:
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Precious metals rallied sharply in August on a shift in Fed rate cut expectations following softer U.S. data, albeit moderating in recent days, with gold up 9.3%, silver up 14.8%, and copper up 1.1%.
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Mining equities delivered outsized leverage, with the GDX up 33.0%, GDXJ up 34.1%, SIL up 32.7%, and COPX up 17.7%, vs. the TSX up 3.0% and the S&P 500 up 2.8%.
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M&A activity displayed signs of acceleration on stronger metal prices, headlined by OceanaGold’s A$776M acquisition of Ausgold Limited and Bunker Hill Mining’s merger with Silver47 Exploration.
Sentiment Update
August delivered a decisive breakout across precious metals, as softer U.S. employment and inflation prints released mid-month reset market expectations for the Fed’s rate path, with continued U.S. dollar weakness and sustained central bank buying providing additional fuel. Gold pushed through $4,700/oz intramonth for the first time since March, silver surged alongside it, and copper extended its recent momentum to new highs. Gold gave back a meaningful portion of those gains in the final two sessions of the month, falling as much as 3.2% on Friday of last week after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh used his debut speech at Jackson Hole (the annual central bank symposium in Wyoming) to warn that inflation is not slowing significantly and that the Fed still has “work to do”. That said, August marked gold’s strongest month since January. Gold finished up 9.3% on the month, silver added 14.8%, and copper gained 1.1%, with mining equities delivering outsized leverage as the GDX rallied 33.0%, GDXJ 34.1%, SIL 32.7%, and COPX 17.7%, well ahead of the broader indexes, with the TSX up 3.0% and the S&P 500 up 2.8%.
The stronger price environment and healthier producer balance sheets continued to fuel M&A activity, headlined by OceanaGold’s (OGC:TSX/NYSE) A$776M (US$549M) all-share acquisition of Australia’s Ausgold Limited (AUC:ASX), which adds the advanced Katanning Gold Project in Western Australia (+100Koz per year, 10+ year mine life, first gold expected in 2029) as its fifth asset and first Australian operation. In addition, Fortuna Mining acquired the advanced stage exploration Bamdadji Project, adjacent to its feasibility stage Diamba Sud Gold Project in Senegal, for $200M in cash and a 0.5% NSR. We continue to view mid-cap gold producers as the most likely acquirers in the current environment, with cash-rich balance sheets and appetite for growth fueling further consolidation.
Geopolitical tensions also re-emerged as a factor supporting the sector, with U.S./Iran relations deteriorating after the peace deal deadline formally expired in early August. President Trump has since threatened a crushing economic operation against Iran, the USS George Washington has arrived in the region, and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, bringing back much of the geopolitical risk premium in gold that had faded following the June MOU.
The mid-month U.S. inflation print came in largely in line, with headline CPI easing to 3.4% YoY from 3.5% (in line with consensus) and core easing to 2.5% YoY from 2.6% (also in line), while headline MoM rebounded to 0.1% from -0.4% and core MoM rose to 0.2% from 0.0%, both matching expectations. In Canada, headline inflation ticked up to 3.0% YoY from 2.8% (slightly above the 2.9% consensus), with MoM at 0.5% versus 0.4% expected and -0.4% prior. Combined with softer U.S. labour market data, the print had resulted in less hawkish sentiment toward rate expectations, though as mentioned above, Warsh’s comments late in the month have since introduced fresh uncertainty on the Fed’s next move.
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