Copper Price Forecast 2026 | Fall 2026 Economic Outlook

PLEASE REVIEW THE DISCLOSURES AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE

Copper Price Forecast 2026: 5 Supply Signals That Could Move the Market

By Charles Pitts, Skillings Mining Review

Copper entered 2026 with a market narrative that is unusually divided. Prices have traded at historically elevated levels, while updated data from the International Copper Study Group point to a modest refined-market surplus rather than the deficit many earlier forecasts expected.

That tension is central to the copper price forecast for 2026. The market does not need a dramatic shortage to remain supported. It needs mine growth to undershoot expectations, major operations to recover slowly, and smelters to continue competing for scarce concentrate.

The most useful way to track that outlook is through five measurable supply signals.

Copper market snapshot

The price range is therefore wide. Goldman Sachs expects copper to remain below $11,000 per tonne for sustained periods in a surplus scenario, while other market forecasts cluster around $12,000–$13,000/t. J.P. Morgan’s latest quarterly path puts copper at $13,500/t in the second quarter, easing to $12,500/t by the fourth quarter.

Signal 1: The refined-market balance is moving, but not yet decisively

The first milestone is the most important: whether the global refined copper market records a surplus or deficit.

The latest ICSG forecast calls for a 96,000-tonne refined copper surplus in 2026, following an earlier forecast for a deficit of approximately 150,000 tonnes. That represents a swing of roughly 246,000 tonnes in the projected balance.

The change reflects three developments:

• Global mine production growth was reduced to 1.6%, from an earlier estimate of 2.3%.
• Refined production growth was reduced to 0.4%, from 0.9%.
• Secondary production and softer apparent demand have offset some of the pressure from limited concentrate supply.

Early-year data also showed a refined copper surplus of approximately 396,000 tonnes in the first quarter and about 221,000 tonnes during the first five months, according to summaries of ICSG statistics.

That does not eliminate the bullish case, but it raises the burden of proof. For prices to sustain the upper end of the forecast range, the market will need to see those surpluses narrow as the year progresses.

Milestone to watch: A move from surplus toward balance in the next ICSG updates would support prices above the lower end of the $10,000–$13,000/t range. A persistent surplus would strengthen the bearish case.

Signal 2: Grasberg is a direct test of how quickly disrupted supply can return

The second signal is the recovery profile at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg operation in Indonesia.

Freeport’s latest guidance points to approximately 3.1 billion pounds, or about 1.4 million tonnes, of consolidated copper sales in 2026. That is below the earlier 3.4 billion-pound estimate, with the reduction linked to a slower Grasberg ramp-up.

The Grasberg Minerals District is now expected to contribute approximately 700 million pounds, or 318,000 tonnes, of copper during 2026. Freeport expects the operation to reach roughly 65% of capacity in the second half of 2026, with a path toward 80% by mid-2027 and near-full production by the end of 2027.

That recovery schedule matters because Grasberg is large enough to affect the global concentrate market. Every quarter of delay removes material that smelters and traders had expected to receive. A stronger-than-expected recovery would have the opposite effect, helping to rebuild concentrate availability and easing treatment-charge pressure.

The operational question is not simply whether Grasberg restarts. It is whether underground mining, material handling, processing and logistics all return in sequence without another interruption.

Milestone to watch: Quarterly Grasberg output relative to the 65% second-half capacity target. A miss would tighten the market; an early acceleration would reduce the premium attached to disruption risk.

Signal 3: Kamoa-Kakula must convert expansion plans into saleable tonnes

The third signal is new African supply, led by Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-Kakula complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Ivanhoe has maintained 2026 copper production guidance of 290,000–330,000 tonnes, although a later update cited a narrower 290,000–310,000-tonne range. The project produced 64,328 tonnes in the second quarter, with a significantly stronger second-half production profile expected.

The company plans to raise underground mining rates by about 30% during the second half, reaching approximately 700,000 tonnes of ore per month, equivalent to roughly 8.5 million tonnes annually. Ore feed to the Phase 1 and Phase 2 concentrators is expected to reach about 400,000 tonnes per month at an estimated grade near 2.7% copper.

Kamoa-Kakula is also important beyond 2026. Its mine plan targets production above 500,000 tonnes per year from 2028, at a reported cash-cost target of approximately $2 per pound or less.

The risk is execution. Higher mining rates must translate into recoverable copper, stable concentrator performance and reliable export logistics. If the ramp-up works, Kamoa-Kakula can provide meaningful new supply. If it slips, the market will have fewer near-term sources of replacement tonnes.

Milestone to watch: Second-half monthly mining rates, concentrator throughput and the final 2026 production range. The midpoint of the guidance range is approximately 310,000 tonnes; a material miss would be price-supportive.

Signal 4: Zero treatment charges show that concentrate is the binding constraint

The sharpest supply signal in the copper market may be found not at the mine gate, but in smelter economics.

The 2026 annual benchmark for copper concentrate treatment and refining charges was set at $0 per dry metric tonne and 0 cents per pound. That compares with $21.25/t and 2.125 cents per pound in 2025, and approximately $80/t and 8 cents per pound in 2024.

Spot terms have moved below zero. Depending on the assessment and timing, reported 2026 spot treatment charges have ranged from approximately minus $45/t to minus $125/t, while refining charges have fallen as low as roughly minus 12 cents per pound.

Treatment and refining charges are payments made to smelters for processing concentrate. When they fall to zero or below, the signal is clear: smelters are competing aggressively for feed, and miners have increased negotiating power.

This does not automatically mean copper prices must rise. Smelters can continue operating through by-product credits, cathode premiums, financing income or government support. But it does indicate that mine supply is not growing fast enough to keep processing capacity fully supplied.

Milestone to watch: Whether spot TC/RCs remain deeply negative through the second half. A recovery toward positive terms would suggest that concentrate availability is improving. Continued deterioration would reinforce the structural-tightness thesis.

Signal 5: Policy and energy costs will determine the marginal tonne

The fifth signal is the cost and policy environment surrounding new supply.

Goldman Sachs expects a refined copper tariff of at least 25% to be implemented in the United States under its base case. Tariffs can pull copper into the U.S. before implementation, distort regional premiums and redirect material away from other consuming markets.

J.P. Morgan has also quantified the effect of higher energy prices. Its research estimates that if Brent crude remained near $110 per barrel, 2026 copper-demand growth could be reduced by approximately 1.4 percentage points. That would be a demand risk, but higher diesel, electricity and freight costs would also raise the operating costs of mines and smelters.

The policy signal is therefore two-sided:

• Tariffs and export restrictions can tighten regional availability.
• Higher energy costs can weaken industrial demand and delay marginal projects.
• Permitting delays and community opposition can prevent prices from generating fast supply responses.
• Elevated prices can accelerate scrap collection and substitution toward aluminum.

This is why the market can remain structurally tight while still experiencing sharp corrections.

Copper price forecast 2026: bull, base and bear cases

The base case remains the most defensible: a market that is tight in concentrate but not yet in outright refined deficit. That supports a copper price forecast centered near $12,000/t, while leaving room for volatility around operational updates.

Company exposure lens: what investors should monitor

For company-level exposure, Freeport-McMoRan offers the clearest direct test of disruption recovery. Its 3.1 billion-pound consolidated sales guidance and Grasberg ramp-up provide measurable operational catalysts. The principal risks are further delays, underground production constraints and higher recovery costs. Freeport’s Grasberg updates should be read alongside quarterly production results rather than headline copper prices alone.

Ivanhoe Mines provides exposure to the expansion side of the market through Kamoa-Kakula. The 290,000–330,000-tonne guidance range and planned 700,000-tonne monthly mining rate make execution the central variable. Investors should track grades, recoveries, smelter performance and cash costs. Ivanhoe’s 2026 guidance announcement sets out the company’s operating framework.

These are not simple price proxies. Freeport’s outcome depends heavily on recovery execution, while Ivanhoe’s depends on ramp-up delivery. The strongest operational setup would be rising copper prices combined with production growth; the more difficult scenario is rising prices caused by disruptions that also increase costs and reduce volumes.

What could move the forecast next

The next major market moves are likely to come from data rather than forecasts:

1. ICSG balance revisions showing whether the 96,000-tonne surplus is widening or narrowing.
2. Grasberg quarterly output relative to the 65% second-half capacity target.
3. Kamoa-Kakula’s second-half production rate and final guidance range.
4. Spot TC/RC assessments showing whether concentrate scarcity is easing.
5. U.S. tariff decisions and regional inventory flows.

For operators, the message is that capacity and recovery rates matter more than headline mine announcements. For investors and policymakers, the critical question is whether the market can add enough reliable, low-cost supply before grid investment, electrification and data-center construction absorb the available surplus.

Copper’s 2026 outlook is therefore not a one-number forecast. It is a contest between a modest projected surplus and a supply chain showing increasingly visible signs of strain.