Analysts’ Ideas of the Week: Ranking Central Bank Dovishness: Rate Cut Projections and Policy Analysis

Complete Report

Below is a summary table of the top central banks, their rate cuts over the past year, and their projected next moves, followed by a detailed analysis of each bank’s stance and the factors driving their policies. Dovishness, in this context, reflects a central bank’s tendency to ease monetary policy—typically through interest rate cuts—to stimulate economic growth.

Summary Table: Central Bank Dovishness Rankings

Detailed Analysis of Central Banks’ Positions and Projected Moves

  1. Bank of Canada (BoC)
  • Current Position: The BoC has aggressively cut rates by 200 basis points (bps) over the past 12 months, bringing its policy rate to 3.0% as of January 29, 2025, reflecting a shift from inflation suppression to supporting a sluggish economy.
  • Projected Move: Another 25 bps cut is likely at the next meeting on March 12, 2025, to bolster growth, though U.S. tariff threats could pressure inflation higher, potentially prompting a pause if inflationary pressures intensify.
  1. Swiss National Bank (SNB)
  • Current Position: The SNB has cut rates by 125 bps over the past 12 months, lowering its policy rate to 0.5%, driven by low inflation.
  • Projected Move: Another 25 bps cut is anticipated in mid-2025, likely in June, unless unexpected inflationary pressures or currency stabilization alters the outlook.

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