Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation
Strengthens Portfolio Amid Sector Headwinds
Published: May 20, 2025
Author: FRC Analysts
*This report and research coverage is paid for and commissioned by Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation – See the bottom of this report for other important disclosures rating, and risk definitions. All figures in C$ unless otherwise specified.
Sector: Financial Services | Industry: Mortgage Finance
Ticker Symbols: AI.TO – TSX AMIVF – NASDAQ
Report Highlights
- In Q1-2025, mortgage receivables (gross) decreased 2% to $852M. Despite the dip, we maintain our view that AI can reach $900M by year-end.
- As 84% of AI’s portfolio are floating-rate mortgages, its average lending rate has declined with the Bank of Canada’s cuts.
- Q1 revenue and EPS declined 13% and 7% YoY, respectively, both missing our estimates (by 3% and 6%) due to lower lending rates. Annual regular dividends remained steady at $0.93/share, reflecting an 8.4% yield.
- Stage three (impaired) mortgages declined 33% QoQ to 2.2% of mortgages, the lowest level since Q2-2023, signaling a lower risk profile. Key portfolio metrics remained stable, with a high proportion of first mortgages (96.7%), and a relatively low LTV of 61%.
- Due to sluggish sector activity, particularly in development and construction projects, the company has been increasing its exposure to lower-risk property types, such as single-family residential and income-producing commercial properties, which should reduce portfolio risk, and yields.
- Since June 2024, the BoC has cut rates seven times (225 bp), with the potential for one or two more cuts this year, due to slowing GDP growth, high unemployment, and cooling inflation. Although mortgage delinquencies remain a concern for lenders, we believe the risk is easing amid falling mortgage rates. We anticipate a rebound in pre-sales, and reduced financing costs for developers, and increased transaction volumes for real estate lenders this year.
- While Trump’s tariff threats have increased uncertainty amid escalating trade tensions, geopolitical risks, and the potential for a global GDP slowdown, the recent trade deal with the U.K., and temporary agreement with China have partially restored investor confidence. We believe Trump is likely to reverse or soften most of his administration’s new measures, given their potential negative impact on U.S. consumers and businesses. Should this occur, we would revert to a bullish stance on MICs, as declining rate environments have historically boosted MIC/financial stocks.
- AI remains well-positioned to navigate economic uncertainties, given its strengthened portfolio, featuring more first mortgages, fewer stage-three mortgages, and an enhanced focus on relatively low-risk properties.
Disclaimer
Fundamental Research Corp. Equity Rating Scale:
- Buy – Annual expected rate of return exceeding 5%; the expected return is commensurate with risk
- Hold – Annual expected rate of return is between 5% and 12%
- Sell – Annual expected rate of return is below 5% or the expected return is not commensurate with risk
- Suspended or Rating N/A – Coverage and ratings suspended until more information can be obtained from the company regarding recent events.
Fundamental Research Corp. – Risk Rating Scale:
- (Low Risk) – The company operates in an industry where it has a strong position (for example a monopoly, high market share etc.) or operates in a regulated industry. The future outlook is stable or positive for the future. The company generates positive free cash flow and has a history of profitability. The capital structure is conservative with little or no debt.
- (Below Average Risk) – The company operates in an industry where the fundamentals and outlook are positive. The industry and company are relatively less sensitive to systemic risk than companies with a Risk Rating of 3. The company has a history of profitability and has demonstrated its ability to generate positive free cash flows (though current free cash flow may be negative due to capital investment). The company’s capital structure is conservative with little to modest use of debt.
- (Average Risk) – The company operates in an industry that has average sensitivity to systematic risk. The industry may be cyclical. Profits and cash flow are sensitive to economic factors although the company has demonstrated its ability to generate positive earnings and cash flow. Debt use is in line with industry averages, and coverage ratios are sufficient.
- (Speculative) – The company has little or no history of generating earnings or cash flow. Debt use is higher. These companies may be in start-up mode or in a turnaround situation. These companies should be considered speculative.
- (Highly Speculative) – The company has no history of generating earnings or cash flow. They may operate in a new industry with new, and unproven products. Products may be at the development stage, testing, or seeking regulatory approval. These companies may run into liquidity issues and may rely on external funding. These stocks are considered highly speculative.
Disclaimers and Disclosure
The opinions expressed in this report are the true opinions of the analyst about this company and industry. Any “forward looking statements” are our best estimates and opinions based upon information that is publicly available and that we believe to be correct, but we have not independently verified with respect to truth or correctness. There is no guarantee that our forecasts will materialize. Actual results will likely vary.
Fundamental Research Corp. “FRC” owns shares of the subject company: No. The analyst owns shares of the subject company: No , and does not make a market or offer shares for sale of the subject company, and does not have any investment banking business with the subject company.
Fees have been paid to FRC by Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation to commission this report and research coverage including update reports. This fee creates a potential conflict of interest which readers should consider. The purpose of the fee is to subsidize the high costs of research and monitoring. FRC takes steps to ensure independence including setting fees in advance and utilizing analysts who must abide by CFA Institute Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct. Additionally, analysts may not trade in any security under coverage. Our full editorial control of all research, timing of release of the reports, and release of liability for negative reports are protected contractually. To further ensure independence, Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation has agreed to a minimum coverage term including an initial report and three updates. Coverage cannot be unilaterally terminated. Distribution procedure: our reports are distributed first to our web-based subscribers on the date shown on this report then made available to delayed access users through various other channels for a limited time.
The distribution of FRC’s ratings are as follows: BUY (69%), HOLD (3%), SELL / SUSPEND (28%). Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation
To subscribe for real-time access to research, visit www.researchfrc.com/plans for subscription options
This report contains “forward looking” statements. Forward-looking statements regarding the Company and/or stock’s performance inherently involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from such forward-looking statements. Factors that would cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, continued acceptance of the Company’s products/technologies in the marketplace; acceptance in the marketplace of the Company’s new product lines/services; competitive factors; new product/service introductions by others; technological changes; dependence on suppliers; systematic market risks which discuss discussed in the Company’s periodic SEC filings, including interim reports, annual reports, and annual information forms filed with the various securities regulators. By making these forward-looking statements, Fundamental Research Corp. and the analyst/author of this report undertakes no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changes after the date of this report. A report initiating coverage will most often be updated quarterly while a report reconfirming a rating may have future results. A report initiating coverage will most often be updated quarterly while a report issuing a rating may have no further or less frequent updates because the subject company is likely to be in earlier stages where nothing material may occur quarter to quarter.
Fundamental Research Corp DOES NOT MAKE ANY WARRANTY TO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM USING THIS INFORMATION AND MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR USE. ANYONE USING THIS REPORT ASSUMES FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR WHATEVER RESULTS THEY OBTAIN FROM WHATEVER USE THE INFORMATION WAS PUT TO. ALTERNATIVELY, TO COVER FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE YOU INVEST. WHETHER A STOCK SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN A PORTFOLIO DEPENDS ON ONE’S RISK TOLERANCE AND OTHER FACTORS, FULL DESCRIPTION OF THE ASSETS, ETC. ONLY YOUR INVESTMENT ADVISOR WHO KNOWS YOU UNIQUE CIRCUMSTANCES CAN MAKE A PROPER RECOMMENDATION AS TO THE MERIT OF ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY FOR INCLUSION IN YOUR PORTFOLIO. THIS REPORT IS SOLELY FOR INFORMATIVE PURPOSES AND IS NOT A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY OR SELL ANY SECURITY. IT IS NOT INTENDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR OPINION FOR INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR OR INVESTMENT PURPOSES. It is not a solicitation for offers to buy or sell any securities. All statements in this report were independently prepared unless otherwise stated and HAVE NOT BEEN ENDORSED BY THE MANAGEMENT OF THE COMPANY WHICH IS THE SUBJECT OF THIS REPORT. Additional information is available upon request. THIS REPORT IS COPYRIGHT. YOU MAY NOT REDISTRIBUTE THIS REPORT WITHOUT OUR PERMISSION. Please give proper credit, including citing Fundamental Research Corp and/or the analyst, when quoting information from this report.
The information contained in this report is intended to be viewed only in jurisdictions where it may be legally viewed and is not intended for use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction where such use would be contrary to local regulations or which would require any registration requirement within such jurisdiction.