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If you have only glanced at the crypto headlines lately, here is what changed on Monday morning. Bitcoin, the largest digital currency, climbed above $85,000. It touched $85,420 at its peak today, the highest price since late January, and about 3.8% on the day.
That is a big jump, but it helps to know where the price started. Bitcoin traded near $75,000 as recently as September 15th and pushed back above $80,000 on Friday. Over the past five days it has gained more than 7%, and over three months it has gained nearly 35%. Even so, it remains slightly below where it began 2026, and it is still about 32.5% under its record of roughly $126,000 from October 2025.
Investors have a name for the stretch that followed that record: crypto winter. It describes a long period of depressed digital asset prices, much like a bear market in stocks. The question now is whether that winter is finally over.
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, an asset manager focused on crypto, believes it is. On CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe he said “the crocuses are blooming” and predicted the strongest and longest bull market the industry has ever seen. His reasoning is that real usage kept growing while prices sagged, with more transactions across blockchains and deeper involvement from large firms such as BlackRock (NYSE: BLK). In his view, prices are likely to catch up by the end of the year. He also says money that chased artificial intelligence stocks is rotating back into crypto as that trade has leveled off.
Not everything behind the jump is about long-term strength, though. Market data showed hundreds of millions of dollars in bets against bitcoin, known as short positions, were forced to close as the price rose. Closing a short means buying, and that buying pushes the price up further, a pattern traders call a short squeeze. One analysis pointed out that squeezes produce real price moves, but they are mechanical, so they say little about whether a rally will last.
Washington added a complication. The Clarity Act is a bill that would set federal rules for crypto markets, including which regulator oversees which digital assets. On September 15th, the Senate voted on whether to let the bill move forward, which needed 60 votes. It received 49, with 50 senators voting no, including every Democrat and four Republicans. Supporters had hoped the bill would finally settle whether the Securities and Exchange Commission or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has the final say over a given token. Hougan argues the failure may not hurt much, because both agencies are currently friendly to crypto and can keep writing rules on their own.
The Federal Reserve added another headwind. On September 16th it raised interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, to a range between 3.75% and 4%, and most policymakers expect at least one more increase this year. Higher rates usually make risky assets like bitcoin less attractive, because safer options such as government bonds pay more. Bitcoin was trading near $75,600 shortly before the decision and has climbed since.
So is the crypto winter over? The evidence points in two directions, and the fairest reading is that it is too early to call it spring. Usage is growing, regulators are friendly, and money is returning from other trades, all of which support Hougan’s case. But part of this rally came from forced buying, the Federal Reserve is still raising rates, and the one bill that would have given the industry lasting rules is stalled. A market that gains nearly 35% in three months can lose ground just as quickly. One day above $85,000 will not settle the debate. What will settle it is whether bitcoin can hold this ground once the short sellers have finished covering and the excitement has faded.
