Black Friday always feels like the main event of the holiday shopping season. This year crowds hit stores and websites in record numbers but left less money behind. The National Retail Federation (NFR) estimates 186.9 million people will shop from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday up from 183.4 million last year. That surge shows shoppers still love the thrill of the hunt even if their budgets force them to hold back.
Average spending tells a different story. According to the NFR, people plan to drop about $890 per person on gifts decorations food and other holiday items down from $902 in 2024. Households might see even tighter numbers with Deloitte forecasting a 4% dip to $622 on average. Shoppers cite rising living costs as the culprit with 70% pointing to everyday expenses like groceries and 54% blaming inflation. Nearly two-thirds of those surveyed by the NRF say they wait specifically for Thanksgiving weekend deals up from 59% last year. Older buyers lead this group hunting value wherever they can find it.
Retailers feel the pinch too. They stock up for the masses but face demands for deeper cuts on prices. About 80% of Black Friday participants go for special discounts and 67% target items they have eyed at lower costs. In-store traffic holds steady at around 29% of shoppers with Walmart and Target drawing the biggest crowds at 71% and 56% respectively. Online dominates though at 71% and Amazon pulls in 94% of Cyber Week buyers a jump from last year. Gen Z adds energy to physical stores with 72% planning visits compared to 49% overall.
This mix creates real tension for stores. More bodies mean busier checkout lines and higher operational costs yet lower per-person totals squeeze margins. Buy Now Pay Later options hit records last year at $18.2 billion hinting some stretch to join the fun. Categories like clothing at 77-80% electronics at 69-70% and gift cards at 36-37% top lists for both channels. Retailers respond by spreading promotions across the five-day stretch since Black Friday itself draws 70% but not everyone buys big on the day.
Consumers act smart in uncertain times. They comparison shop across channels and prioritize must-haves over extras. Crowds pack malls early with 33% starting in-store on Thanksgiving and 30% hitting doors between 5 and 10 a.m. Friday. Not liking crowds keeps 52% away but those who go focus on value. Retailers adapt by matching online deals in stores to capture the traffic. The result balances high volume with controlled spending keeping shelves turning without massive losses.
