The early months of 2025 have seen a notable decrease in travel from Canada to the United States, reflecting a significant shift in cross-border mobility patterns. Data from January through March reveal a steady decline in Canadian residents making return trips from the U.S., both by automobile and air, with broader implications for travel-related industries and economic activity tied to cross-border movement.
In January 2025, Canadian-resident return trips by automobile from the U.S. fell by 0.9% compared to the same month in 2024. While this decline might appear modest, it marked the beginning of a downward trend in cross-border travel for the year.
The drop became more pronounced in February 2025, when Canadian residents made 2.2 million return trips from the U.S., representing a 17.7% decrease year-over-year. This decline was accompanied by a 40% reduction in bookings to American cities compared to February 2024, indicating a significant pullback in travel plans and reservations.
March data highlighted a further contraction. Return trips by automobile from the U.S. plunged by 31.9% compared to March 2024, while return trips by air declined by 13.5%. Overall, cross-border travelers from Canada to the U.S. dropped by nearly 900,000 people, a 17% reduction year-over-year. Transborder air passenger traffic to the U.S. was down 3.7% compared to March 2024, underscoring a broader reduction in air travel demand.
The sustained decline in Canadian travel to the U.S. has significant consequences across multiple sectors. Reduced cross-border trips mean lower revenues for airlines, car rental companies, hotels, and other tourism-related businesses in both countries. Retailers and service providers in U.S. border cities, who often rely on Canadian shoppers, are seeing a downturn in local economic activity. Additionally, decreased vehicle and passenger volumes can influence border operations and transportation planning. Overall, the 17% year-over-year drop in Canadian travelers, points to a contraction in economic activity for industries such as hospitality, entertainment, and business services that depend on cross-border movement.
Several factors contributed to the decline in travel from Canada to the U.S. in the first months of 2025. One of the main reasons was the introduction of new U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports, which led to heightened political tensions and economic uncertainty between the two countries. This atmosphere prompted some Canadians to boycott travel to the U.S. as a form of protest against these policies and the rhetoric coming from American leadership.
Stricter border controls also played a significant role. Reports of increased scrutiny, detentions, and even deportations of Canadian travelers created fear and uncertainty among potential visitors. As a result, Canadian authorities issued travel advisories, warning citizens to exercise caution when entering the United States. These developments made the prospect of cross-border travel less appealing.
Economic factors further discouraged Canadians from visiting the U.S. The U.S. dollar strengthened against the Canadian dollar, making travel and shopping in the U.S. more expensive for Canadians. This currency gap, combined with the broader economic uncertainty, led many to reconsider their travel plans.
Additionally, the overall environment in the U.S. was perceived as less welcoming. Tougher immigration policies and enforcement measures, along with the intensified “America First” stance, made some international travelers-including Canadians-feel unwelcome. New regulations requiring Canadians and other visitors staying in the U.S. for more than 30 days to register with the U.S. government added another layer of concern and inconvenience.
The combined effect of these factors resulted in a dramatic drop in Canadian travel to the U.S., with official data showing significant declines in both road and air travel. Many Canadians opted to vacation within Canada or seek alternative international destinations instead
Monitoring these trends will be crucial for businesses and policymakers. The decline in Canadian travel to the U.S. may prompt adjustments in marketing strategies, service offerings, and infrastructure investment to adapt to evolving traveler behaviors.
