Chilean Cobalt Corp.
Developing a Cobalt Supply Chain in the Americas – Initiating Coverage
Published: Oct 7, 2025
Author: FRC Analysts
*Chilean Cobalt Corp. has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions.
Sector: Basic Materials | Industry: Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Ticker Symbols: COBA – OTC
Report Highlights
- Chilean Cobalt Corp. is developing a district-scale cobalt-copper project in Chile’s historic San Juan region, anchored by its flagship La Cobaltera project.
- Cobalt is essential for lithium-ion batteries (EVs, electronics), superalloys, and AI/advanced computing applications. Cobalt is classified as a critical mineral by many countries, including the U.S., Canada, and various European Union member states. The DRC accounts for ~76% of global cobalt production, underscoring the need for diversified, ethical supply sources.
- Cobalt prices have rebounded ~50% YTD, following the DRC’s export ban, and subsequent quota system. We expect near-term price support, and a structural shift from surplus to deficit by the early 2030s.
- Governments are accelerating efforts to reduce dependence on the DRC and China. The U.S. government’s 5% stake in Lithium Americas’ (TSX: LAC) Nevada project underscores its intent to secure domestic battery material supply chains. COBA’s vision is to be a key part of this emerging supply chain.
- Exploration to date at the La Cobaltera project (a historic high-grade cobalt producer) has identified two main trends: a >12 km long cobalt-rich (+copper) vein system, and a 20 km long copper-rich (+cobalt) three-zone vein system. The project does not yet have a resource estimate; drilling is planned to define one, with production targeted within four-five years.
- Geological consultants SRK conducted a study for COBA based on regional mineralization, and historical production data. The study outlined a conceptual model for a 10–15 year operation, with an estimated CAPEX of $300–400M for a 10,000 tpd processing plant, producing 5–10 Mlbs of cobalt, and 50–60 Mlbs of copper annually.
- COBA has partnered with Glencore (LSE: GLEN) for concentrate offtake, and US Strategic Metals (USSM) for downstream cobalt and copper processing. Concentrates from the La Cobaltera project are expected to be exported to the U.S. for refining.
- The U.S. EXIM Bank has issued a Letter of Interest for up to $317M, potentially funding approximately 80% of the project’s initial CAPEX — a strong endorsement of the project’s potential.
- Upcoming catalysts include a maiden resource estimate in 2026, and a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) in 2026–2027.
Risks
- Commodity prices
- No resource or economic study
- Exploration and development
- Permitting
- Access to capital and potential for share dilution
Fundamental Research Corp. Equity Rating Scale:
Fundamental Research Corp. Equity Rating Scale (ratings are not a recommendation to acquire, dispose of, or take no action regarding a security; the definition of our ratings are explained below):
- Buy – Fair value is 12% above the current market price; or risk and reward is favorable
- Hold – Fair value is between 5% to 12% above the current market price
- Sell – Fair value is 5% above, or less, than the current market value; or risk and reward is unfavorable
- Suspended or Rating N/A – Coverage and ratings suspended until more information can be obtained from the company regarding recent events.
Fundamental Research Corp. – Risk Rating Scale:
- (Low Risk) – The company operates in an industry where it has a strong position (for example a monopoly, high market share etc.) or operates in a regulated industry. The future outlook is stable or positive for the industry. The company generates positive free cash flow and has a history of profitability. The capital structure is conservative with little or no debt.
- (Below Average Risk) – The company operates in an industry where the fundamentals and outlook are positive. The industry and company are relatively less sensitive to systematic risk than companies with a Risk Rating of 3. The company has a history of profitability and has demonstrated its ability to generate positive free cash flows (though current free cash flow may be negative due to capital investment). The company’s capital structure is conservative with little to modest use of debt.
- (Average Risk) – The company operates in an industry that has average sensitivity to systematic risk. The industry may be cyclical. Profits and cash flow are sensitive to economic factors although the company has demonstrated its ability to generate positive earnings and cash flow. Debt use is in line with industry averages, and coverage ratios are sufficient.
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