In a significant market development, crude oil has just concluded its largest monthly gain since January 2022, Driven by Optimism on Global Economy oil market. The price of West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F) crude oil surged more than 15% and 14% respectively in July, signaling a strong rebound in the energy sector.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs attribute this impressive rally to traders becoming increasingly constructive about the outlook for the global economy. The investment bank estimated that global oil demand reached an all-time high in July and subsequently revised up its 2023 demand forecast to approximately 500,000 barrels per day.
Amid this positive market sentiment, Goldman Sachs is holding firm on its 12-month-ahead forecast of $93 per barrel for Brent crude and $86 for December 2023. At the time of reporting, Brent crude settled close to $85.50 on Monday.
The rising expectations that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its tightening cycle have also provided a boost to crude prices. Investors are growing more optimistic that the economy could achieve a “soft landing,” resulting in a reduction of inflation while avoiding a recession.
Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell expressed confidence in this outcome during a recent press conference, adding further support to the market sentiment. Notably, data released on Friday indicated that the Fed’s preferred inflation measure in June rose at the slowest pace since September 2021. Additionally, second-quarter GDP figures revealed that the US economy grew faster than expected during this period.
Furthermore, production cuts have played a significant role in strengthening the oil market as demand continues to rebound. Leading oil-producing nations are poised to extend voluntary production cuts into September, indicating their commitment to stabilizing the market.
Goldman Sachs highlights that the Global Economy oil market transitioned into a supply deficit in July, a significant shift from being in an average surplus of about 600,000 barrels per day over the previous year.
At present, crude oil is trading at approximately $81.29 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The market is closely monitoring the ongoing developments as the energy sector continues to show signs of resilience and growth driven by Optimism on Global Economy
As always, it’s important to note that trading in the oil market carries inherent risks and fluctuations. Investors are advised to consult qualified investment advisors and conduct thorough research before making any decisions in this dynamic market landscape.
Source: Yahoo Finance