Energy Vault Holdings, Inc.
2025 Beat, Robust Pipeline Growth & AI Energy Expansion
Published: Mar 19, 2026
Author: FRC Analysts
Disclosure: Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions.
Company Details
Sector – Utilities
Industry – Utilities-Renewable
Trading Information
Trading information – NRGV : NASDAQ
Report Highlights
- 2025 Revenue and EPS beat: Revenue rose 341% YoY, driven by third-party deployments, beating our estimate by 7%, while adjusted EBITDA improved from ($58M) to ($21M), ahead of our ($39M) estimate. Notably, adjusted EBITDA turned positive in Q4-2025, rising YoY from ($13M) to $10M.
- Pipeline Expansion: By year-end 2025, the company’s contracted backlog grew to $1.3 B (Q3: $0.9B). While near-term revenue will continue to be dominated by third-party deployments, the company remains focused on scaling its Asset Vault division, centered on owning and operating storage assets.
- New Australian Project: In February 2026, NRGV announced a 100 MW / 870 MWh energy storage project in New South Wales, with a long-term government-backed offtake agreement, supporting stable recurring revenue. This marks the fifth Asset Vault project, bringing the portfolio to 441 MW/2.6 GWh, with potential to generate $50-$60M in EBITDA annually. In addition, the company announced initiatives totaling another 100 MW related to AI data centers, highlighting NRGV’s expansion into AI-focused infrastructure.
- Asset Vault Scaling: Asset Vault is targeting $100–$150M in annual recurring EBITDA within four years across ~1.5 GW of capacity. Of the five projects currently in the platform, two are operational, with the remaining three expected to come online in 2027–2028.
- Supportive Market Tailwinds: Market outlook remains robust given rising power demand, renewable adoption, and grid reliability needs. Key drivers include AI data centers, and renewable integration. Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and resulting spikes in oil prices, have further underscored the need for diversified and resilient energy systems, enhancing the attractiveness of energy storage solutions.
- Valuation Discount: NRGV is trading at 10.3x forward EBITDA vs the sector average of 13.2x, a 22% discount.
- 2026 Guidance & Outlook: Management guides 2026 revenue of $225–$300M (~30% YoY growth); we raise our estimate by 14% to $248M.
Price and Volume (1-year)

* Energy Vault Holdings has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions. All figures in US$ unless otherwise specified.
By the end of 2025, NRGV had $1.3B in contracted backlog (Q3: $0.9B), and $3B in its pipeline (Q3: $2.1B), largely driven by tolling revenue from company-owned projects
Project Pipeline

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