Energy Vault Holdings, Inc.
Transforming into an Energy Storage Independent Power Producer
Published: Nov 4, 2025
Author: FRC Analysts
Disclosure: Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions.
Company Details
Sector – Utilities / Industry – Utilities-Renewable
Trading Information
Ticker & Exchange NRGV: NYSE
Report Highlights
- NRGV develops grid-scale energy storage solutions for utilities, independent power producers (IPPs), and large industrial customers. The market is growing rapidly due to rising power demand, renewable adoption, and grid reliability needs. Key drivers include AI data centers, renewable integration, and government and corporate clean energy mandates.
- Since 2022, NRGV has deployed 1.4 GWh of storage, generating over $550M in revenue, and $90M in gross profit. NRGV offers a full spectrum of storage solutions across diverse technologies, with the majority of revenue coming from lithium-ion battery deployments, which represent over 90% of global energy storage capacity.
- The company is shifting to an IPP model, focusing on owning and operating storage assets rather than deploying systems for third parties, generating recurring, long-term revenue from power sales. We are not aware of any other publicly listed energy storage IPP.
- In October 2025, NRGV launched Asset Vault, backed by $300M in non-dilutive financing from U.S.-based infrastructure firm Orion Infrastructure Capital (OIC), marking a pivotal step in the company’s evolution. The platform targets $100-$150M in recurring EBITDA within four years across 1.5 GW of projects with $1B total CAPEX. The current portfolio includes four projects (341 MW), two operational, and two in development, targeting $40M in annual EBITDA by 2027.
- The company also has a project backlog of approximately $300M from third-party deployments, expected to be recognized as revenue in 2025–2026.
- NRGV is trading at 12x forward EBITDA vs the sector average of 16x, a 24% discount. Q3 results are due next week, and we anticipate a significant sequential increase in revenue from the current backlog.
Risks
- Tariffs: U.S. tariffs on Chinese lithium-ion imports may raise costs
- Policy: Changes in green energy incentives could reduce demand
- Credit: Customer or partner defaults may affect revenue
- Compliance: Projects must meet all regulations and permits
- Financing: High upfront costs require funding
Price and Volume (1-year)
* Energy Vault Holdings has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions. All figures in US$ unless otherwise specified.
Company Overview
Fundamental Research Corp. Equity Rating Scale:
Fundamental Research Corp. Equity Rating Scale (ratings are not a recommendation to acquire, dispose of, or take no action regarding a security; the definition of our ratings are explained below):
- Buy – Fair value is 12% above the current market price; or risk and reward is favorable
- Hold – Fair value is between 5% to 12% above the current market price
- Sell – Fair value is 5% above, or less, than the current market value; or risk and reward is unfavorable
- Suspended or Rating N/A – Coverage and ratings suspended until more information can be obtained from the company regarding recent events.
Fundamental Research Corp. – Risk Rating Scale:
- (Low Risk) – The company operates in an industry where it has a strong position (for example a monopoly, high market share etc.) or operates in a regulated industry. The future outlook is stable or positive for the industry. The company generates positive free cash flow and has a history of profitability. The capital structure is conservative with little or no debt.
- (Below Average Risk) – The company operates in an industry where the fundamentals and outlook are positive. The industry and company are relatively less sensitive to systematic risk than companies with a Risk Rating of 3. The company has a history of profitability and has demonstrated its ability to generate positive free cash flows (though current free cash flow may be negative due to capital investment). The company’s capital structure is conservative with little to modest use of debt.
- (Average Risk) – The company operates in an industry that has average sensitivity to systematic risk. The industry may be cyclical. Profits and cash flow are sensitive to economic factors although the company has demonstrated its ability to generate positive earnings and cash flow. Debt use is in line with industry averages, and coverage ratios are sufficient.
- (Speculative) – The company has little or no history of generating earnings or cash flow. Debt use is higher. These companies may be in start-up mode or in a turnaround situation. These companies should be considered speculative.
- (Highly Speculative) – The company has no history of generating earnings or cash flow. They may operate in a new industry with new, and unproven products. Products may be at the development stage, testing, or seeking regulatory approval. These companies may run into liquidity issues and may rely on external funding. These stocks are considered highly speculative.
Definition of FRC’s Fair Value Estimate – Our fair value estimate is the theoretical value of the company’s equity using widely accepted methods of valuation such as discount cash flow or comparables. IT IS NOT A TARGET PRICE or PREDICTION OF THE FUTURE STOCK PRICE.
Disclaimers and Disclosure
Analyst Certification: The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst, and no part of their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed.
Any “forward looking statements” are our best estimates and opinions based upon information that is publicly available and that we believe to be correct, but we have not independently verified with respect to truth or correctness. There is no guarantee that our forecasts will materialize. Actual results will likely vary. The analyst and Fundamental Research Corp.
Fundamental Research Corp. “FRC” owns shares of the subject company: No. The analyst owns shares of the subject company: No , does not make a market or offer shares for sale of the subject company, and does not have any investment banking business with the subject company.
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The distribution of FRC’s ratings are as follows: BUY (69%), HOLD (3%), SELL / SUSPEND (28%). Yorkton Equity Group Inc.
This report contains “forward looking” statements. Forward-looking statements regarding the Company and/or stock’s performance inherently involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from such forward-looking statements. Factors that would cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, continued acceptance of the Company’s products/services in the marketplace; acceptance in the marketplace of the Company’s new product lines/services; competitive factors; new product/service introductions by others; technological changes; dependence on suppliers; systematic market risks and other risks discussed in the Company’s periodic report filings, including interim reports, annual reports, and annual information forms filed with the various securities regulators. By making these forward-looking statements, Fundamental Research Corp. and the analyst/author of this report undertakes no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changes after the date of this report. A report initiating coverage will most often be updated quarterly while a report issuing a rating may have no further or less frequent updates because the subject company is likely to be in earlier stages where nothing material may occur quarter to quarter.
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