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POLITICS
USA
Trump begins the month by ordering the military air strikes on Senior ISIS attack planner and other militants he led in Somalia. As Trump shares, they were found hiding in caves and eliminated without civilian casualties. They had been threatening America and its allies way before Trump entered office, and so Trump took them out.
Trump initiates his purge of what he deems corrupt government agencies and some new Executive Orders:
- Cleaning out the FBI. Many were given resignation offers and those involved in Jan 6 and Russian gate hoax were fired.
- Closing the Department of Education
- Signs EO to withdraw from the UN citing they have deep anti-American bias.
- Investigation into California’s high speed rail project
- Offered a 8 month buy out for federal workers and apparently roughly 70,000 employees have accepted to resign with 8 months pay.
- Signed EO defunding all schools who still have the Covid-19 vaccine requirements
- A Biden-appointed judge pauses Trump’s ban on transgender surgeries for minors.
- Trump signed an EO directing the Commerce Department to examine possible tariffs on copper.
Bloomberg Interview with Scott Bessent
Tariff War with Canada continues
Trudeau came out saying he would retaliate to US tariffs with their own tariffs of 25% against $155 million worth of US goods. He also tells Canadians not to go on vacation in the USA.
Ontario LCBO and Quebec SAQ alcohol stores, which are both owned by the respective governments, began to remove alcohol and promised to remove more US alcohol products. Doug cancels a $100 million provincial contract between Ontario and Starlink, owned by Elon Musk.
The US aluminum industry called on President Donald Trump to exempt Canadian imports of the raw metal from his planned tariffs to help protect jobs and domestic manufacturers. Canada is the primary source of aluminum imports. And both Mexico and Canada are primary suppliers of steel imports.
Trump considering allowing Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion US Steel takeover which was previously blocked by the former President Joe Biden in January.
Putin noted that in 2017, Russia accounted for about 15% of all American aluminum imports. “In general, the US – if my memory serves me right – produces about 60% of the required aluminum itself, and imports 40%,” the President recalled adding that of this percentage 15% came from Russia, while the main importer today is Canada.
- “If a decision is made to open the American market for our producers, we could sell about 2 million tons there. This would not significantly affect the pricing, but, in my opinion, it would still have a restraining effect on price stabilization.”
→ On a side note to this issue, the objective economic conclusion is that Canada should not be retaliating, which would only further hurt Canadians more than Americans. There is a story Milton Friedman shared about retaliation on tariffs which goes… Imagine being in the middle of the ocean on a boat with someone else, and that other individual decides to pull out his gun and shoot a hole in the boat. So in retaliation, you decide to pull out a gun of your own and shoot another hole in the boat. No1 wins. And in this case, America would be the other individual with a life jacket to not drown. Canada has roughly 75% of its exports consumed by the USA, which only represents about 15% of their imports.
Canadians get this angry over tariffs and yet their own government taxes them to death, and they find no energy to fight back against their own politicians. The Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE) made calls for the Canadian Federal Government to seize the property and nationalize any business which threatens to leave Canada to the US deemed nationally important.
Talk about communism in Canada.
Carney, who is running for Canadian Elections even said he would invoke “emergency powers of the federal government to accelerate the major projects we need…” in the fight back against America.
Trump delayed tariffs with Mexico for 1 month after having had a conversation with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.
- 10,000 Mexican soldiers will be placed at the border between Mexico and the USA.
- They will prioritize stopping the flow of fentanyl and illegal migrants into the USA .
At a later point in the moment, the Mexican Senate approved the entry of U.S. special forces to take on the cartels.
Tariff war with China
China’s finance ministry announced tariffs on a range of US products in response to Trump’s 10% tariffs on Chinese imports.
- 15% levy on coal and liquefied natural gas
- 10% tariff on crude oil and agricultural machinery, and large engine cars.
- 15% tariff on all US vehicles
At the same time they announce an investigation into Google after Trump makes that move.
China is ready for a trade war. The theme of Commodity Warfare.
But China saw record outflows of foreign direct investment last year, a drop by $168 billion, an exodus that threatens to persist after the resumption of a trade war with the US.
Tariff war with EU coming?
EU’s Von der Leyen warns of firm response by EU members if targeted by US in tariff conflict.
Trump did later in the month hint at imposing 25% tariffs on goods and services from the EU.
“But the European Union was formed in order to screw the United States … that’s the purpose of it, and they’ve done a good job of it. But now I’m president” – President Trump
The UK government debuted a new plan to protect jobs in the country’s steel industry just days after Donald Trump threatened to introduce 25% tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum from all countries
Strengthening Relationship with Japan
Japan’s PM Ishiba in a meeting with Trump in the USA announced their intention to increase Japan’s investments in the US to $1 trillion. The two leaders also confirmed that they will cooperate to strengthen energy security between the two countries, including increasing exports of U.S. liquefied natural gas to Japan, in a mutually beneficial manner.
US President Trump sanctions South Africa
US President Donald Trump has accused South Africa of human rights violations against white farmers, continuing a dispute that escalated this week as the US froze aid to the country.
On Sunday Trump wrote on his Truth Social account: “South Africa is confiscating land, and treating certain classes of people VERY BADLY.”
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa signed into law in January 2025 a bill allowing land seizures by the state without compensation – a move that has put him at odds with some members of his government.
The South African government says Trump’s actions were based on “a campaign of misinformation and propaganda aimed at misrepresenting our great nation”.
Marco Rubio talks USAID, US, Mexico, China, Canada tariff wars, Panama canal
Panama out of the Belt and Road Initiative
Panama ends its 2017 Belt and Road Initiative after USA’s Secretary of State Marco Rubio visits Panama and demands Panama reduce China’s influence and control over the Panama Canal.
“I do not know what was the intention of those who signed this agreement with China. What has it brought to Panama all these years? What are the great things that this Belt and Road Initiative has brought to the country?” Panamanian President Mulino said at a press conference.
DOGE Reveals insane spending problem
Much of the problem has been identified as associated with USAID:
- $45 million for DEI scholarships in Burma
- $3 million for girls centered climate action in Brazil
- $125 million to radicalize public health
- $280,000 for diverse birdwatchers
- $1.5 million for DEI in Serbia’s workplace and business communities
- $70,000 for DEI musical in Ireland
- $2.5 million for EV’s in Vietnam
- $47,000 for trans comic book in Peru
- $2 million for sex changes in Guatemala
- $6 million for tourism in Egypt
- $2.3 million contract for VR training course to teach soldiers how to have difficult conversations about DEI
At a White House press briefing, White House Press Secretary Leavitt told reporters that she had been made aware of USAID funding to media outlets, including Politico, and noted that taxpayer dollars that have been allocated toward “essentially subsidizing subscriptions to Politico on the American taxpayers’ dime will no longer be happening.” An estimated $8 million has been given to Politico for Federal Subscriptions to the platform.
Subcommittee hearing on government Waste
In a first interview with both Elon and Trump with Fox, Elon shares that the goal is to shed $1 Trillion from the deficit.
Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent said in a Fox interview that “this kind of fearmongering doesn’t help.. It tells me that people are worried that they’re part of the waste, fraud and abuse.”
“To compel a man to furnish funds for the propagation of ideas he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.” Thomas Jefferson
Elon seeks to audit the FED with signs of having Ron Paul leading the charge. Trump administration officials have discussed the possibility of auditing Fort Knox gold reserves.
A federal judge sided with Elon and DOGE in his pursuit of auditing and digging into CFPB, HHS and the Department of Labor. There is plenty of standing for DOGE to investigate and audit government departments.
END Property Taxes
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said he will push to end property taxes in Florida.
UK & Apple Investigation
Tulsi Gabbard has called for an investigation after the UK government ordered Apple to build a backdoor into the global data of its customers
The decision could leave Americans’ encrypted data at risk of being exposed, according to a letter she sent on Tuesday to two US lawmakers who had expressed their own objections to the matter. Instead of complying with the UK and building a backdoor, Apple removed Advanced Data Protection from the country last Friday, eliminating a feature for end-to-end encrypting cloud storage, device backups and apps like notes. The US and UK have entered into a bilateral agreement called the Cloud Act that, Gabbard said, prohibits the UK from issuing demands for data of US residents or any persons located inside the country.
NEW Sovereign Wealth Fund
Trump signs Executive Order tasking Treasury Commerce Departments to create NEW U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund. The plan will be submitted within 90 days from when the order was signed.
- The United States already holds a vast sum of highly valued assets that can be invested through a sovereign wealth fund for greater long-term wealth generation. The Federal government directly holds $5.7 trillion in assets. Indirectly, including through natural resource reserves, the Federal government holds a far larger sum of asset value.
- Crypto Bitcoin Reserve part of this?
Israel Support
Trump asked congress to approve a $1 billion arms transfer to Israel. Transfers include 4,700 1,000-pound bombs valued at over $700 million, along with Caterpillar-built armored bulldozers worth more than $300 million. The report added that the request would be paid from the annual US military aid allocated to Israel, which totals $3.3 billion in foreign military financing.
Bad Bureaucrats
One of former President Barack Obama’s senior policy advisor Rahamim Shy has been sentenced officially to 11.5 years in prison after being arrested for flying to Britain to meet a 9 year old child he believed to be communicating with which was a sting operation by police.
RUSSIA – UKRAINE PEACE DEVELOPMENT
U.S. The Defense Secretary stated that the Russian-Ukraine peace talks will not include Ukraine joining NATO. This was also stated by the Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban when he said “it will not become a NATO member.” In that same speech, PM Viktor said mothers with 2 or more children would be exempt from income tax for life.
Chancellor Scholz called on the German parliament to impose a state of emergency due to the statements made by the U.S. government regarding Ukraine.
Zelensky is excluded from the Peace talks in Saudi Arabia where Russia and USA were present to talk peace. President Zelensky said “I will never accept any decisions between the United States and Russia about Ukraine. Never.”
In response, European leaders held an emergency summit in Paris over Trump’s decision to negotiate directly with Russia, bypassing Europe and Zelensky.
→ On a personal note to this, I think I understand why Trump has done this. Zelensky has demonstrated over and over peace talks without a complete win is out of the question. And many of the EU leaders have shown over and over again they do not desire peace neither without a total victory and surrender from Russia. On countless counts we have seen many of the EU leaders show their desire to send their own armies on the ground in Ukraine to help against Russia. They want war to continue, and the EU leaders may be the biggest obstacle to peace. How can a serious peace talk happen with Russia who is clearly giving Ukraine more problems than they can handle, when the other side (Ukraine and EU leaders) will clearly not show the idea of peace any respect. Clearly Trump’s position is not alone. In a press conference, Slovakia Prime Minister Robert Fico said he has had enough with Zelensky. “I’m not here to walk hand in hand with President Zelensky. I’m fed up with him. He is constantly begging and extorting others for money. This has to stop.”
- Lord Sumption, former senior judge who sat on the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom between 2012 and 2018, and a Non-Permanent Judge of the Hong Kong Court of Final Appeal from 2019 to 2024 said “The United States is now a very very unreliable ally, and we have to make ourselves less dependent on the US.”
- President Trump ends all US weapons shipments to Ukraine.
The EU on the other hand at a coalition meeting, Ursula von der Leyen will deliver $3.5 billion EURO payment to Ukraine, plus there will a special European council where a comprehensive plan for defense investment, to scale european arms production and capabilities, but also for investments in Ukraine to strengthen their domestic arms production and defense capabilities. She announced a security energy plan focused on:
- Fully Integrating Ukraine’s and Moldova’s electricity market into the EU’s electricity market by end of 2026
- Leverage Ukraine’s vast gas storages for them to generate income and provide more LNG to the EU market.
- Accelerate EU’s investments into Renewable projects
The UK government then announces the biggest sustained increase in Defense spending since the end of the Cold War. This will include spending 13.4 billion pounds more per year on defense from 2027.
As I said earlier, is peace truly possible with the EU in the way?
Zelensky offers the US Ukraine’s rare earth and mineral deposits for a security package from President Trump. On the last day of the month, Zelensky goes to Washington to meet with Trump. Ends horribly. Zelensky is asked to leave the White House, after a non productive meeting happens.
CANADA
The Canadian Taxpayer Federation shared that Global Affairs Canada has given $350 million in corporate subsidies to the “private sector in Asia” to develop low-carbon and climate resistant initiatives and advance gender equality in the region. This part of a bigger commitment by the Canadian Government to provide $5.3 billion in Climate Finance.
Alberta released a report into their Covid-19 investigation in January 2025.
→ Source: Alberta COVID-19 Pandemic Data Review Task Force Final Report
US Arms Support to Taiwan
Taiwan considering multi-billion $ arms purchase from U.S.
MIDDLE EAST
- Lebanese army and Hezbollah supporters clash on a main road leading to airport.
- In Qusayr Lebanon, Israeli forces eliminate Hezbollah official Mehran Nasser al-Din
- In Tel Aviv, Israel, 3 buses exploded in a suspected terror attack.
- Buses were discovered with bombs set to explode the following morning
MUNICH Security Conference
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said “we cannot and will not allow platforms to destroy our democratic societies.” Must be referring to X and TikToks
JD Vance attended the Conference and made a speech, and mentioned the Tyranny of EU governments against free speech.
→ Munich Security Conference 2025: Speech by J.D. Vance – Munich Security Conference
German Defense Minister Pistorius, member of the left-wing SPD party reacts to JD Vance words claiming what he said is “not acceptable”
Zelensky then in a speech says that the EU should create a European NATO without the US.
Following this conference, CBS does a documentary on ‘Speech in Germany”
The German Prosecutor revealed that it is indeed a crime to post an insult online and that reposting a lie is also as guilty as posting lies online. Cannot find the full video.
GERMAN ELECTIONS
The German election on February 23 saw a record-breaking voter turnout of 82.5%, according to the Federal Election Commission. That’s a significant increase from 76.6% in 2021, and the highest voter participation since unification in 1990. The high voter turnout is an indicator of the public’s heightened concern about the country’s current political and economic outlook after the government collapsed in November.
With vote counting finished, preliminary results show the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) led by chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz and its sister Christian Social Union (CSU) won the election with 28.6% of the vote. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) , which has been designated in parts as extremist, came in second with 20.8%. Former governing coalition partners the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens won 16.4% and 11.6% respectively. The fiscally conservative Free Democratic Party (FDP), which was also part of the coalition but left the government in November, failed to get past the 5% hurdle to enter Germany’s lower house of parliament or Bundestag.
The big winner of the election in terms of voter gains was the right-wing populist AfD, which nearly doubled its voter share over the previous federal election in 2021.
ROMANIA ARRESTS “ELECTED” PRESIDENT
The claimed victor of democratic elections that were canceled by the high courts in Romania as a result of “Russian interference” because of TikTok has been arrested. Calin Georgescu is anti-EU, which goes against the pro-EU government that was in power and has potentially usurped power from the rightful winner of Romanian elections.
Triggered massive protests of thousands of people demanding his release
Romanian prosecutors charge Georgescu on six counts in criminal case rocking the country
CULTURE
Ray Dalio: America’s Hidden Civil War, and the Race to Beat China in Tech, Economics, and Academia
Prince Alwaleed: Trump’s Tariff’s, DeepSeek, & Going From Fox News’ Biggest Investor to Backing X
BERLIN
Berlin sees another car drive through a crowd hitting over 28 people. This follows the last car attack like this in December when one drove into a Christmas market full of people.
At least 28 injured after car drives into crowd in Munich
FRANCE
12 people badly injured in France after a hand grenade was thrown into a bar
AUSTRIA
In Villach, Austria a Syrian asylum seeker went on a terror attack with a knife stabbing 5 people, which included the death of a 14-year old boy.
14-year-old boy dead after stabbing attack in Austria, others injured
Anti-ICE / Anti-Deportation protests
Massive protest breaks out near DTLA over ICE arrests, deportations
Anti-ICE protesters cause mayhem in Los Angeles against Trump’s mass deportations
Violence breaks out at protest against Trump immigration policy
In New Zealand, the Maoris perform Haka and counter protest the LGBTQ+ parade. They are now under investigation.
Police investigate assault allegations at Destiny Church pride protest | 1News on TVNZ+
UK farmers protest
Farmers’ protest: Tractors and tanks descend on Westminster
MSNBC Cancels Joy Reid show
ECONOMICS
Central Banks
FED
- Former senior advisor to FED John Rogers was arrested for leaking trade secrets to China.
BOE – Bank of England
- Cut interest rates by 0.25% to 4.5%
- BOE expects recent inflation increase to be temporary
- BOE is concerned about weaker growth
- They revised their growth forecast for the year downwards
BOJ – Bank of Japan
- BOJ chief warns of very strong global economic uncertainty due to tariff escalations.
US Economy
Near the end of the month of February, The House voted to pass the budget resolution backed by Trump which includes a $4.5 Trillion tax cuts such as no taxes on tips, overtime and social security. Meanwhile, the budget plan raises the debt limit by $4 trillion. It increased the statutory debt limit by $4 trillion, so that it would rise from $36.1 trillion to $40.1 trillion.
A Resurgence of Inflation
Rising Debt Maintains Pressure on Inflation
Some data on debt record as of Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023.
Apple Investment in US
Apple will spend more than $500 billion in the U.S. over the next four years
- Teams and facilities to expand in Michigan, Texas, California, Arizona, Nevada, Iowa, Oregon, North Carolina, and WashingtonPlans include a new factory in Texas, doubling the U.S. Advanced Manufacturing Fund, a manufacturing academy, and accelerated investments in AI and silicon engineering
US Labor Market
- Estee Lauder announces to cut up to 7,000 jobs
- Chevron to lay off 15% – 20% of global workforce
- Nikola the electric truck maker filed for bankruptcy
CANADA
- Consumer insolvencies for the 12‑month period ending December 31, 2024, increased by 11.4%
- Consumer bankruptcies increased by 10.8%, while consumer proposals increased by 11.6%. The proportion of proposals in consumer insolvencies increased to 78.8% during the 12‑month period ending December 31, 2024
- Business insolvencies for the 12‑month period ending December 31, 2024, increased by 28.6%. Construction, Transportation and Warehousing and Accommodation and Food Services registered the biggest increases in the number of insolvencies.
JAPAN
Inflate rate climbs to 4% in January, highest in 2 years.
RUSSIAN Payment Infrastructure
Russia plans to boost yuan sales by 17% to support the Ruble aimed at supporting the Ruble in the face of increased volatility due to Western sanctions and turbulence in the global forex market. Under a complex scheme of foreign currency operations, the central bank buys and sells forex both to ensure supply on the domestic market and to act on behalf of the finance ministry, which runs the “rainy day” National Wealth Fund (NWF). The central bank cannot buy and sell dollars and euros because of Western sanctions imposed over Russia’s actions in Ukraine. China’s yuan, which is now the most traded foreign currency in Russia, has become the regulator’s only instrument for forex interventions.
Russians’ Hunt to Shield Savings Pushes Gold Purchases to Record
Consumers purchased 75.6 metric tons (2.7 million ounces) of the yellow metal in bullion, coins and jewelry in 2024, the fifth biggest figure among all nations, according to World Gold Council data. That’s an increase of 6% on the previous year and more than 60% since President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops into Ukraine almost three years ago. Russia is the world’s second-biggest gold producer, mining over 300 tons of the precious metal a year.
The government expands the list of countries whose banks will be eligible to participate in foreign exchange trading in Russia. Government Decisions – The Russian Government
Directive No.160-r of 1 February 2025
“The number of friendly and neutral countries whose credit organisations and brokers will be admitted to trading on the Russian foreign exchange market and the derivatives market has increased to 40. A directive to this effect has been signed. Representatives of Argentina, Cambodia, Ethiopia, Mexico, Nigeria, Tunisia and Laos will now be eligible to participate in foreign exchange trading. The initial list of friendly and neutral countries was approved by the Government in September 2023. It consisted of more than 30 countries, including Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, as well as Brazil, Egypt, India, China, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Thailand, Türkiyeand South Africa. The directive is part of the implementation of new provisions of the federal law On Organised Trading adopted in July 2023. These provisions aim to increase the efficiency of direct conversion mechanisms for the national currencies of friendly and neutral countries and the establishment of direct exchange rates against the rouble to meet the Russian economy’s demand for settlements in the national currency.”
GOLD & SILVER
- 40,649 gold contracts already delivered in 3 days in February after a HEAVY 22,538 delivered in all of January.
- That is completely unprecedented. London was drained and now its happening in the US on the COMEX.
- London sees record gold outflow in January as traders rushed to ship to the US to avoid tariff risks and capture premium prices
This isn’t merely a shuffling of bullion, it’s a symptom of worldwide economic anxieties.
Both the Financial Times and Reuters have reported that waiting times have soared for clients to retrieve their gold, with traders lining up for weeks to get bars out of the Bank of England and ship them to the US. It is estimated that traders have moved 393 metric tonnes of gold into New York’s Comex commodity exchange since Trump’s election victory in November.
Goldman Sachs lifts GOLD TARGET for year end 2025 to $3100 USD.
INDONESIA BULLION BANK
- Recently added to the BRICs
Infrastructure & Energy
- Doug Ford promised to spend $22 billion CAD on infrastructure projects if elected.
Russia announces its own version of Starlink satellites that will provide internet in 2027. Elon Musk is getting competition.
- The Russian Federation will launch satellites in 2026 that will provide the entire country with Internet access — Mishustin.
- In the future, about three hundred devices will be in operation that will be able to fully satisfy the needs of not only Russia, but also all the countries of the Union – for cheap and fast Internet.
Baltic states successfully plug into the European power grid no longer needing Russia.
Satya Nadella – Microsoft’s AGI Plan & Quantum Breakthrough
COMMODITIES
Coffee Soars
Copper futures climbed after Trump signed an EO directing the Commerce Department to examine possible tariffs on copper.
Canada to extend mineral exploration tax credit for two more years
Canada will extend a tax credit on mineral exploration for two additional years as part of the government’s move to support investment in exploration projects, energy, and natural resources, Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said on Sunday.
The mineral exploration tax credit is a capital market tool that offers investors a 15% tax credit to invest in flow-through shares of smaller mining companies. It was set to expire on March 31. Flow-Through shares are a capital raise vehicle through which a mining company must use all proceeds for exploration purposes only.
Wilkinson said the extension is to ensure that the mining sector has the tools to raise capital for exploration projects.
Nic Tartaglia’s MacroΩInsights
I am obsessed with the macro world, where I seek to dissect and understand the ever-changing dynamics of the world on a monthly basis through a Political, Cultural & Economic lens.
