Graphite One Inc.
A Strategic U.S. Graphite Play with Strong Government Backing – Resuming Coverage
Published: Oct 15, 2025
Author: FRC Analysts
*Graphite One Inc. has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions.
Sector: Basic Materials | Industry: Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Ticker Symbols: GPH.V – NEO GPHOF – NASDAQ
Report Highlights
* Qualified Person: Robert M. Retherford, P.Geo., an Independent Consultant of Graphite One Inc. (GPH).
- We are resuming coverage on Graphite One Inc. (GPH), which aims to build a fully integrated mine-to-battery anode material supply chain in the U.S. for lithium-ion batteries in EVs and energy storage systems
- We believe the U.S. has a pressing need for domestic graphite production, as it imports 100% of its graphite consumption, and has designated graphite as a critical mineral. The global graphite market, currently in surplus, is expected to shift to a supply deficit by decade’s end, suggesting a robust long-term price outlook.
- GPH’s Graphite Creek project in Alaska is the largest known graphite deposit in the Americas. The company plans to mine graphite from Graphite Creek, process it into concentrates, and send them to a proposed Ohio Secondary Treatment Plant (STP) to manufacture anode active materials (AAM) for batteries, and other refined graphite products.
- A recent Bankable Feasibility Study/BFS (20-year mine life) estimates an after-tax NPV8% of US$5B, and an after-tax IRR of 27%, with a capital-intensive initial CAPEX of US$4B. GPH is trading at just 4% of its AT-NPV8%.
- Management plans to launch STP operations first, using third-party graphite concentrates until Graphite Creek comes online. To reduce upfront costs and risk, GPH is pursuing a phased modular buildout, with each module producing 25 ktpy of AAM versus 169 ktpy in the BFS. The first module requires US$607M CAPEX, or just 15% of the BFS estimate. It will also be built in stages, starting with an initial US$60M CAPEX stage designed to generate early cash flow before expanding to the full 25 ktpy capacity.
- The company is entering a critical phase of development, gaining meaningful traction from both the U.S. government and key industry players. GPH has signed offtake agreements with Lucid Group (NASDAQ: LCID), accelerated its feasibility study by 15 months with support from a US$37.5M grant from the U.S. Department of Defense, and was recently added to the U.S. Government’s FAST-41 Federal Permitting Dashboard, placing it among a select group of critical mineral projects eligible for expedited permitting. In addition, the U.S. Export-Import Bank (EXIM) has issued letters of interest to potentially finance up to US$895M of construction costs, a major vote of confidence in the project.
- GPH is well funded, having raised C$20M through two recent equity financings. Upcoming catalysts include AAM facility site selection, environmental studies, and permitting activities at the Graphite Creek property. We believe GPH is an attractive M&A target for large miners or technology companies seeking a stable, long-term U.S. graphite supply. The U.S. government’s recent decision to acquire a 5% stake in Lithium Americas’ (TSX: LAC) Nevada project underscores its intent to secure domestic battery material supply chains.
Price and Volume (1-year)
Fundamental Research Corp. Equity Rating Scale:
Fundamental Research Corp. Equity Rating Scale (ratings are not a recommendation to acquire, dispose of, or take no action regarding a security; the definition of our ratings are explained below):
- Buy – Fair value is 12% above the current market price; or risk and reward is favorable
- Hold – Fair value is between 5% to 12% above the current market price
- Sell – Fair value is 5% above, or less, than the current market value; or risk and reward is unfavorable
- Suspended or Rating N/A – Coverage and ratings suspended until more information can be obtained from the company regarding recent events.
Fundamental Research Corp. – Risk Rating Scale:
- (Low Risk) – The company operates in an industry where it has a strong position (for example a monopoly, high market share etc.) or operates in a regulated industry. The future outlook is stable or positive for the industry. The company generates positive free cash flow and has a history of profitability. The capital structure is conservative with little or no debt.
- (Below Average Risk) – The company operates in an industry where the fundamentals and outlook are positive. The industry and company are relatively less sensitive to systematic risk than companies with a Risk Rating of 3. The company has a history of profitability and has demonstrated its ability to generate positive free cash flows (though current free cash flow may be negative due to capital investment). The company’s capital structure is conservative with little to modest use of debt.
- (Average Risk) – The company operates in an industry that has average sensitivity to systematic risk. The industry may be cyclical. Profits and cash flow are sensitive to economic factors although the company has demonstrated its ability to generate positive earnings and cash flow. Debt use is in line with industry averages, and coverage ratios are sufficient.
- (Speculative) – The company has little or no history of generating earnings or cash flow. Debt use is higher. These companies may be in start-up mode or in a turnaround situation. These companies should be considered speculative.
- (Highly Speculative) – The company has no history of generating earnings or cash flow. They may operate in a new industry with new, and unproven products. Products may be at the development stage, testing, or seeking regulatory approval. These companies may run into liquidity issues and may rely on external funding. These stocks are considered highly speculative.
Definition of FRC’s Fair Value Estimate – Our fair value estimate is the theoretical value of the company’s equity using widely accepted methods of valuation such as discount cash flow or comparables. IT IS NOT A TARGET PRICE or PREDICTION OF THE FUTURE STOCK PRICE.
Disclaimers and Disclosure
Analyst Certification: The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst, and no part of their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed.
Any “forward looking statements” are our best estimates and opinions based upon information that is publicly available and that we believe to be correct, but we have not independently verified with respect to truth or correctness. There is no guarantee that our forecasts will materialize. Actual results will likely vary. The analyst and Fundamental Research Corp.
Fundamental Research Corp. “FRC” owns shares of the subject company: No. The analyst owns shares of the subject company: No , does not make a market or offer shares for sale of the subject company, and does not have any investment banking business with the subject company.
Annual fees ranging from $15,000 to $30,000 have been paid to FRC by Graphite One Inc. to commission this report and research coverage including update reports. This fee creates a potential conflict of interest which readers should consider. FRC takes steps to mitigate conflicts including setting fees in advance and utilizing analysts who must abide by CFA Institute Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct. Additionally, analysts may not trade in any security under coverage. Our full editorial control of all research, timing of release of the reports, and release of liability for negative reports are protected contractually. The issuer has agreed to a minimum coverage term and coverage cannot be unilaterally terminated. Distribution procedure: our reports are distributed first to our web-based subscribers on the date shown on this report then made available to delayed access users through various other channels for a limited time.
The distribution of FRC’s ratings are as follows: BUY (69%), HOLD (3%), SELL / SUSPEND (28%). Graphite One Inc.
This report contains “forward looking” statements. Forward-looking statements regarding the Company and/or stock’s performance inherently involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from such forward-looking statements. Factors that would cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, continued acceptance of the Company’s products/services in the marketplace; acceptance in the marketplace of the Company’s new product lines/services; competitive factors; new product/service introductions by others; technological changes; dependence on suppliers; systematic market risks and other risks discussed in the Company’s periodic report filings, including interim reports, annual reports, and annual information forms filed with the various securities regulators. By making these forward-looking statements, Fundamental Research Corp. and the analyst/author of this report undertakes no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changes after the date of this report. A report initiating coverage will most often be updated quarterly while a report issuing a rating may have no further or less frequent updates because the subject company is likely to be in earlier stages where nothing material may occur quarter to quarter.
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