In October 2025, private sector employment in the U.S. saw a modest increase of 42,000 jobs, a small but notable rebound from two months of job losses. This figure, released through the ADP National Employment Report, offers one of the few current glimpses into U.S. job market conditions amid an unusual absence of official labor data this month. The report showed pay growth steady at 4.5% year over year, suggesting that wage pressures have remained stable for over a year.
The ADP National Employment Report, a product of payroll processor ADP in collaboration with Stanford University’s Digital Economy Lab, compiles anonymized payroll data from over 26 million employees in the private sector. This insight provides a high-frequency view of employment trends among private companies, although it does not include public sector jobs. The latest results showed job additions concentrated in sectors such as trade, transportation, utilities, education, and health services, whereas sectors like information services and leisure and hospitality faced declines. Notably, all net job growth occurred in larger companies, while smaller firms recorded job losses, a shift that signals caution about economic resilience heading into the holiday season.
While the ADP report offers timely data, it differs from the much-anticipated Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The NFP is considered the broader employment measure since it includes both private and public sectors, relies on government survey data from a larger sample, and typically commands greater attention from investors, policymakers, and economists. The NFP release typically arrives on the first Friday of each month at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, providing a comprehensive snapshot of U.S. employment conditions including unemployment rates and wage changes.
This October, however, the NFP report will not be released on schedule due to the ongoing federal government shutdown, which has suspended many Bureau of Labor Statistics operations. The absence of the NFP report adds a layer of uncertainty for markets and economic decision-makers who normally depend on this critical data point for real-time assessments of the labor market. In its absence, the ADP report has taken on added significance as the only major measure available to gauge employment trends for October.
Historically, ADP and NFP data do not always align perfectly. The ADP report is drawn from payroll data of private employers who use ADP’s services, while the NFP survey samples a wider group of employers across industries and includes government jobs. As a result, the two reports can diverge sometimes significantly due to methodology, timing differences, and scope. Investors tend to place more weight on the NFP because of its comprehensive approach and government backing. Market reactions to ADP releases tend to be more muted, but this time ADP’s figures are receiving heightened attention given the gap left by the missing NFP data.
This month’s ADP report suggests the labor market remains cautious but stable, with slower hiring and persistent weaknesses in certain sectors. The slow pace of job growth contrasts with the stronger monthly gains seen earlier this year, signaling the ongoing challenges facing employers and employees alike. Wage growth holding steady indicates some balance between labor supply and demand, easing concerns about runaway inflation pressures from tight labor conditions.
With payroll data delayed, market participants and the Federal Reserve face difficulties in accurately assessing the economy’s path forward. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently acknowledged that the lack of government employment reports is clouding the central bank’s view on the economy, making policy decisions about interest rates more challenging. The Fed’s next policy meeting approaches amid uncertainty, and reliable labor market data will be critical when it resumes.
As the U.S. labor market enters the final months of 2025, the job additions captured by ADP represent a cautious step forward amid broader uncertainty. The pending return of the official Nonfarm Payroll report will be closely watched to confirm whether the tentative stabilization seen in the private sector extends more broadly across the economy. Until then, analysts and decision-makers must rely on limited data to parse the health of the world’s largest labor market.
