Millennial Potash Corp.
Tight Potash Market and Strategic U.S. DFC Funding Boost Valuation
Published: Aug 12, 2025
Author: FRC Analysts
*Millennial Potash Corp. has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions.
Sector: Basic Materials | Industry: Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Ticker Symbols: MLP.V – TSX
Report Highlights
*QP: Peter J. MacLean, Ph.D., P.Geo, Director of MLP
- MLP is up 755% YoY, making it one of the best-performing junior resource stocks globally. This rally was driven by robust potash intercepts from an infill and step-out drill program, and a US$3M funding commitment from the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) toward a feasibility study on MLP’s Banio potash project in Gabon.
- We believe the US$3M commitment is far more significant than the amount suggests. The DFC is exploring opportunities in Africa, prioritizing food security and supporting projects like Banio that aim to improve regional food stability. DFC’s involvement offers MLP non-dilutive funding, signals political support from both the U.S. and Gabon, and potential for future construction-stage financing. The presence of Gabon’s President at the signing underscores local backing.
- Additionally, phase one completion of a deep-port facility, and the ongoing construction of a power plant, is expected to greatly reduce operational risks for the project.
- Potash prices are up 17% YoY, to US$363/t due to escalating U.S. and Canada tariff tensions, persistent export disruptions from major suppliers Russia and Belarus caused by sanctions and logistical bottlenecks, as well as hurricane impacts that temporarily sidelined U.S. fertilizer infrastructure. Supply constraints were further exacerbated by BHP’s (ASX: BHP) recent announcement that the first phase of its Jansen project in Saskatchewan will be delayed to mid-2027, with projected capital expenditures rising to US$7–7.4B (up from US$5.7B).
- Africa imports most of its potash consumption from Russia. In addition to Africa, a major target market for Banio’s potash is Brazil, which imports 95% of its potash demand from Canada, Russia, and Belarus.
- The Banio project hosts a large-tonnage/low-grade potash resource. A recent drill program intersected very thick potash horizons, including 290 m in one hole, and 100 m in another, extending mineralization along strike and at depth. We believe these results should positively impact an upcoming updated resource, expected in H2 2025.
- With about $15M cash on hand, and the US$3M commitment from the DFC, MLP is well-funded to complete a feasibility study by 2026.
- A 2024 Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) reported robust economics, with an AT-NPV10% of US$1.1B, and a high AT-IRR of 33%, using a long-term average price of US$387/t granular Muriate of Potash (gMOP) vs the current spot price of US$363/t. MLP is trading at just 13% of the AT-NPV10%.
- Management and insiders own 33% of MLP’s equity. Management has a highly successful track record in M&A. Their previous deals included – a) Millennial Lithium – sold to Lithium Americas (NYSE: LAC) for $490M in 2022, b) Allana Potash – sold to Israel Chemicals (NYSE: ICL) for $170M in 2015, and c) Potash One – sold to K&S (XTRA: SDF) for $430M in 2011.
- Upcoming catalysts include an updated resource estimate, feasibility study, and potential M&A activity.
*Subsequent to Q3-FY2025, MLP raised $9M through an equity financing.
Fundamental Research Corp. Equity Rating Scale:
Fundamental Research Corp. Equity Rating Scale (ratings are not a recommendation to acquire, dispose of, or take no action regarding a security; the definition of our ratings are explained below):
- Buy – Fair value is 12% above the current market price; or risk and reward is favorable
- Hold – Fair value is between 5% to 12% above the current market price
- Sell – Fair value is 5% above, or less, than the current market value; or risk and reward is unfavorable
- Suspended or Rating N/A – Coverage and ratings suspended until more information can be obtained from the company regarding recent events.
Fundamental Research Corp. – Risk Rating Scale:
- (Low Risk) – The company operates in an industry where it has a strong position (for example a monopoly, high market share etc.) or operates in a regulated industry. The future outlook is stable or positive for the industry. The company generates positive free cash flow and has a history of profitability. The capital structure is conservative with little or no debt.
- (Below Average Risk) – The company operates in an industry where the fundamentals and outlook are positive. The industry and company are relatively less sensitive to systematic risk than companies with a Risk Rating of 3. The company has a history of profitability and has demonstrated its ability to generate positive free cash flows (though current free cash flow may be negative due to capital investment). The company’s capital structure is conservative with little to modest use of debt.
- (Average Risk) – The company operates in an industry that has average sensitivity to systematic risk. The industry may be cyclical. Profits and cash flow are sensitive to economic factors although the company has demonstrated its ability to generate positive earnings and cash flow. Debt use is in line with industry averages, and coverage ratios are sufficient.
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Definition of FRC’s Fair Value Estimate – Our fair value estimate is the theoretical value of the company’s equity using widely accepted methods of valuation such as discount cash flow or comparables. IT IS NOT A TARGET PRICE or PREDICTION OF THE FUTURE STOCK PRICE.
Disclaimers and Disclosure
Analyst Certification: The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst, and no part of their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed.
Any “forward looking statements” are our best estimates and opinions based upon information that is publicly available and that we believe to be correct, but we have not independently verified with respect to truth or correctness. There is no guarantee that our forecasts will materialize. Actual results will likely vary. The analyst and Fundamental Research Corp.
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Annual fees ranging from $15,000 to $30,000 have been paid to FRC by Millennial Potash Corp. to commission this report and research coverage including update reports. This fee creates a potential conflict of interest which readers should consider. FRC takes steps to mitigate conflicts including setting fees in advance and utilizing analysts who must abide by CFA Institute Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct. Additionally, analysts may not trade in any security under coverage. Our full editorial control of all research, timing of release of the reports, and release of liability for negative reports are protected contractually. The issuer has agreed to a minimum coverage term and coverage cannot be unilaterally terminated. Distribution procedure: our reports are distributed first to our web-based subscribers on the date shown on this report then made available to delayed access users through various other channels for a limited time.
The distribution of FRC’s ratings are as follows: BUY (71%), HOLD (3%), SELL / SUSPEND (26%). Millennial Potash Corp.
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