Author: Atrium Research August 18, 2026
Nicholas Cortellucci, CFA | Equity Research Analyst | [email protected] | 647-391-3314
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What you need to know:
- Precious metals stabilized in July following the sharp June selloff, with gold up 0.6%, silver down 2.0%, while copper extended its rally.
- Mining equities were mixed, with the GDX down 1.8%, GDXJ down 2.9%, SILJ down 4.9%, and COPX up 2.5%, with the TSX up 1.1% and the S&P up 0.2%.
- Q2 earnings from the majors validated the new commodity price environment, with Teck Resources’ adjusted EBITDA nearly tripling YoY on strong copper margins, while Newmont and Agnico Eagle both delivered record quarterly FCF and material shareholder returns.
Sentiment Update
Precious metals largely stabilized in July following the sharp June selloff, trading in tight ranges through the month, while copper stood out as the standout performer, extending a rally to fresh highs. Gold gained ~0.6% on the month while silver was slightly down at 2.0%, and copper extended its rally with a ~6.3% gain. Mining equities were broadly mixed as GDX fell 1.8%, while GDXJ slipped 2.9%, SILJ declined 4.9%, and COPX climbed 2.5% alongside copper, with broader indexes similarly mixed as the TSX was up 1.1% and the S&P 500 up 0.2%.
This strength in copper was validated by Teck Resources’ (TECK.B:TSX) Q2 earnings, which saw adjusted EBITDA nearly triple YoY to C$2.2B, with higher copper prices further supported by a 25% YoY increase in production and declining costs, delivering a record 61% EBITDA margin for the quarter. On the gold side, as prices have moderated, Newmont (NEM:NYSE) reported Q2 FCF of US$2.2B on realized gold prices of US$4,414/oz, down sequentially from Q1’s quarterly record on a realized price of $4,900/oz. That said, the quarter remained well above the US$3,320/oz realized in Q2/25, reinforcing the fundamentally new gold price environment we continue to flag vs. this time last year. This was on display when Agnico Eagle (AEM:TSX/NYSE) followed with a similarly strong print, delivering record quarterly FCF and a record US$625M return to shareholders via dividends and buybacks on realized gold of US$4,483/oz.
On the critical minerals front, Prime Minister Carney continued to advance Canada’s supply chain diversification agenda through a landmark visit to Saudi Arabia (the first by a Canadian PM in 26 years), where the two countries signed more than C$1B across 13 commercial agreements and MOUs spanning mining, critical minerals, energy, AI, and defence, alongside commitments to negotiate a foreign investment protection agreement by year-end 2027. Domestically, Ottawa also approved the construction of Canada Nickel Company’s (CNC:TSXV) Crawford nickel project near Timmins, further advancing Canada’s push to build out downstream battery and EV supply chains.
U.S. inflation eased to 3.5% YoY from 4.2% prior, below the 3.8% consensus, while inflation MoM dropped to -0.4% from 0.5%, below the -0.1% consensus. Core inflation fell to 2.6% YoY from 2.9%, below the 2.8% consensus, while core MoM eased to 0.0% from 0.2%, below the 0.2% consensus. In Canada, inflation ticked down to 2.8% YoY from 3.2% previously, slightly below the 2.9% consensus, with MoM at -0.4% versus -0.2% expected and 1.0% prior. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate for the fifth consecutive meeting, though three regional presidents opposed in favour of higher rates, underscoring how stickier inflation continues to complicate the near-term rate cut path.
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