Olympia Financial Group Inc.
2025 Beat Despite Rate Softness; AI-Proof Advantage
Published: Mar 11, 2026
Author: FRC Analysts
Disclosure: Olympia Financial Group Inc. has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions.
Company Details
Sector – Financial Services
Industry – Asset Management
Trading Information
Trading information – OLY.TO : TSX
Report Highlights
- 2025 Results: Revenue declined 3.9% YoY, but exceeded our forecast by 0.6%, driven by lower interest on unallocated client capital. EPS fell 17% YoY, but beat our forecast by 1.6%. Dividends held steady at $7.20/year (5.88% yield), in line with expectations.
- Client Assets & Services Revenue: Client assets rose 10% YoY to $13.21B, 0.3% above forecast. Core division services revenue increased 9% YoY on higher transaction volumes. We anticipate continued growth in services revenue, fueled by robust interest in alternative investments, particularly Mortgage Investment Corporations (MICs), which represent a significant portion of client assets. MICs are high-yield, and generally attractive in a low-rate setting.
- Interest Revenue: ~50% of revenue derives from interest on unallocated client capital held in cash accounts at major Canadian banks/credit unions. Following eight rate cuts totaling 275 bps since June 2024, bringing the policy rate to 2.25%, the Bank of Canada held rates steady at its December 2025 and January 2026 meetings. With declining unemployment, and moderating inflation, rates are expected to remain stable through 2026, supporting interest revenue stabilization after several quarters of decline.
- Growth Catalyst: Licensed in all provinces except Ontario, the company’s next catalyst may be federal approval, allowing it to offer services in Ontario as well.
- Valuation & Market Position: OLY trades at an EV/EBITDA of 10.2x, below the sector average of 12.6x, representing a 19% discount. Wealth management stocks are under pressure from AI-driven disruption. On average, major wealth management firms are down ~9% YTD, while OLY is up 9% YTD, reflecting its role as a custodian and administrator, rather than a wealth manager.
- OLY Advantage: We believe OLY is largely shielded from AI disruption because it provides essential regulatory and custodial services for registered accounts; a legal requirement that algorithms cannot replace, at least for now. The company also dominates this space in Canada, facing limited competition from banks and other investment platforms, which generally do not support the alternative investments that OLY facilitates.
Price and Volume (1-year)
* Olympia Financial Group has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions. All figures in C$ unless otherwise specified.
The leading Canadian custodian/ administrator of alternative investments
OLY’s platform supports a broad range of investments typically not offered by banks or traditional trading platforms
Primary Services
- Investment Account Services (IAS): OLY is a trustee/custodian/a dminist rator of self-directed registered investment accounts for alternative investments
- Private Health Services : Administers health spending accounts for small/mid-sized corporations
- Currency and Global Payments: Facilitates the buying and selling of currencies for corporations and individuals
- Corporate and Shareholder Services: Offers corporate trust, and transfer agency services, such as maintenance of security holder registries, organizing annual meetings, and administering dividend reinvestments
- Raisr (Exempt Edge): Provides IT services to exempt market dealers, issuers, and investment advisors
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