The OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has decided to maintain its current oil production policy, resisting pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to increase output and lower crude prices. This decision, made during the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting on February 3, 2025, signals the group’s commitment to its existing plan of gradually unwinding production cuts starting April 2025.
The alliance, which includes major oil producers from OPEC and non-OPEC countries, has been implementing production cuts since late 2022 to stabilize the oil market. Currently, OPEC+ members are reducing output by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day, representing about 5.7% of global demand.
According to the statement released after the meeting, the JMMC emphasized the importance of achieving full conformity with the agreement’s current parameters and highlighted the need for some countries to fulfill their compensation schedules for overproduction during the period of additional voluntary oil production cuts.
The decision comes amid a complex global economic landscape. While the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts lower oil prices in 2025, with Brent crude expected to average $74 per barrel compared to $81 in 2024, U.S. crude oil production is anticipated to reach an all-time high of 13.5 million barrels per day in 2025.
President Trump’s call for lower oil prices, made during his address to the World Economic Forum, seems to have had little impact on OPEC+’s decision-making process. The alliance appears more focused on market fundamentals and the potential for demand recovery in the coming months.
The next JMMC meeting is scheduled for April 5, 2025, where the committee will reassess market conditions and potentially recommend further actions to the OPEC+ ministerial meetings.
For investors watching the energy sector, this decision could have implications for major oil companies listed on various stock exchanges. For example, ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX) or BP (LSE: BP) may see their stock prices affected by OPEC+’s production decisions and subsequent oil price movements.
As the global oil market continues to navigate through economic uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and shifting energy policies, OPEC+’s steadfast approach suggests a cautious optimism about market stability and future demand growth.