It looks like the annual migration of Canadian snowbirds, the retirees who usually flood sunny U.S. states every winter, has been grounded in 2025. Statistics Canada and multiple reports from Forbes and CBC paint a striking picture: travel from Canada to the United States has plunged dramatically this year, and it’s already reshaping the cross-border tourism economy.
Canadian road trips south have been hit especially hard. In September 2025, car crossings to the U.S. were down about 35% compared to a year earlier. Air travel didn’t fare much better, dropping 27%. The downturn has now stretched across at least nine straight months, marking one of the steepest declines since the mid-2000s, excluding the pandemic years. Overall, Canadian travel to the U.S. is down roughly 24% year-to-date.
The economic hit is substantial. Canadians spent an estimated $20.5 billion in the U.S. in 2024. That figure is taking a major hit in 2025, translating to billions lost for American hotels, restaurants, and service-based businesses, especially in states that count on Canadian visitors.
Why the South Is Missing Its Snowbirds
Perhaps the most visible impact is the disappearing snowbird phenomenon. Typically, between half a million and a million Canadians spend their winters in sunbelt states like Florida, Arizona, and Texas. But this year, only about 26% say they plan to travel to the U.S. for winter, down 37% from last year. Among baby boomers, the drop is even more dramatic: only 10% intend to head south, a 66% plunge from 2024 levels.
The reasons are layered. New biometric entry requirements, including fingerprinting and enhanced photo identification, have frustrated older travelers. Rising travel costs, a weaker Canadian dollar, and renewed political tension between Ottawa and Washington have added to hesitations. Many Canadians also cite safety perceptions and an increasing preference for alternative destinations.
Where Canadians Are Going Instead?
Rather than flock south, Canadian travelers are spreading their wings elsewhere. Demand for Caribbean and Mexican resorts has spiked, while European sunny spots like Portugal and Spain are seeing renewed interest among retirees looking for affordable long-stay options. Others are opting to stay put in Canada, exploring domestic winter rentals or shorter getaways to British Columbia or Atlantic provinces.
Economic Ripples Across the Border
For tourism-dependent regions in the U.S., the absence of snowbirds is more than noticeable, it’s quite painful. Florida’s rental markets, Arizona’s seasonal communities, and even small businesses catering to long-stay visitors are feeling the pinch. Real estate activity tied to Canadian buyers has slowed, and seasonal golf clubs and RV parks are reporting fewer early bookings.
Interestingly, it’s not just a one-way story. American visits to Canada slipped too, down about 1.4% in August 2025. That means fewer opportunities on both sides of the border, signaling a cooling of what has long been one of the world’s busiest bilateral travel corridors. This year marks just the third time since 2006 (excluding pandemic years) that more U.S. residents visited Canada than vice versa.
The Bigger Picture
What started as a drop in vacation traffic has evolved into a broader shift in travel behavior. If Canadians continue to redirect their spending to other destinations, or simply keep their money at home, the U.S. tourism economy could lose a major long-term contributor. For decades, Canadian travelers have been among the most reliable international visitors to the United States. Whether 2025’s decline is a temporary chill, or the start of a new normal will depend on geopolitics, currency trends, and how both governments handle cross-border travel policies in 2026.
