The U.S. trade war isn’t showing signs of fading, and for retailers, the consequences keep getting more tangled. As August rolls in, most businesses in retail are supposed to be well into planning their spring 2026 orders. Instead, they’re stuck weighing risks, second-guessing strategies, and bracing for another year of disruption. What began as adjustments to back-to-school and holiday shopping schedules has now disrupted the entire industry’s forecasting cycle.
Ordering for any upcoming season, especially spring, requires months of advance commitment. Factories abroad need agreements, and products have to be moved, shipped, and shelved, all within tight windows. The trade war’s latest tariffs haven’t just increased costs. They’ve also injected so much uncertainty that many retailers are afraid to move at all. Some are pushing through anyway, gambling that their fortunes will be better if they act rather than wait. Most, however, worry that any move could backfire. Retail leaders are warning that the fallout will be felt as higher prices, fewer products on shelves, delayed launches, and job losses up and down the supply chain.
Steve Lamar, who heads the American Apparel & Footwear Association, has been blunt. U.S. fashion, he notes, accounts for less than five percent of total imports but shoulders over a quarter of all tariffs collected by the government. This lopsided burden, layered with abrupt policy swings and new regulations, means companies in the middle of planning for next spring face harsh choices: Do they raise prices for already stretched consumers, lay off workers, or simply cut back on the number of products they offer? None are appealing, but all are on the table this season.
Real companies are feeling these effects. One founder, Aabesh De of Flora, whose firm was prepping a big product launch, had to put plans on ice. The prospect of a sixty percent combined tariff would have doubled the retail price of their new product, so his team delayed the launch, reconsidered suppliers, and is still looking for ways around the new rules. He’s not alone. Retailers across the board are testing alternative supply chains, looking to places like Vietnam, which recently agreed to set tariffs at twenty percent. Yet even that isn’t a silver bullet, and manufacturing at home isn’t a realistic option for many brands due to much higher costs.
For every retailer trying to hang on, there’s the daily calculation of whether to “chase” product and risk inventory or miss sales and risk irrelevance. Consultant Jan Rogers Kniffen summed it up after talking to dozens of industry leaders: Pausing orders is usually worse than pushing through, but neither option feels safe right now. And while larger companies might be able to weather a bad season or shift their supply lines, smaller firms live in dread that a single bad set of tariffs, or one botched spring, will put them out of business.
Meanwhile, the consumer side isn’t immune. Recent data shows prices rising for everything from housewares to kids’ clothes, as companies find they have no choice but to pass tariff costs along. In the past, some absorbed the added expense for the sake of loyalty and margins, but as profit margins get even tighter, many have run out of room to hold the line. Analysts at National Retail Federation and other trade groups now say it’s only a matter of time before the impact filters through every aisle.
Despite the chaos, one thing stands out: Consumer demand has remained surprisingly steady, even as order volumes dip. Back-to-school sales started earlier and stronger this year, and though some forecasts remain darker, there’s optimism that resilient giants,like Walmart or Costco, will navigate the uncertainty better than their smaller, less-diversified competitors.
The bottom line for retail is that uncertainty has become the new normal. For now, spring 2026 is shaping up to be a season of risk, tough calls, and hoping for the best, because for many, waiting any longer just isn’t an option.
