Builders Capital Mortgage Corp.
Strengthened Portfolio and Dividend Resilience
Published: May 2, 2025
Author: FRC Analysts
View Complete Report*This report and research coverage is paid for and commissioned by Builders Capital Mortgage Corp. – See the bottom of this report for other important disclosures rating, and risk definitions. All figures in C$ unless otherwise specified.
Sector: Financial Services | Industry: Mortgage Finance
Ticker Symbols: BCF – TSX
Report Highlights
- In 2024, mortgage receivables (net) increased 31% to $43M vs our estimate of $40M. Q4 saw the bulk of receivables growth, funded by proceeds from a $7.5M bond financing.
- Revenue was up 11.0% YoY, beating our estimate by 1.5%. However, EPS held steady at $1.04, in line with our estimate, as higher loan loss provisions offset revenue growth. Annual regular dividends remained unchanged at $0.80/share, reflecting a yield of 9.36%.
- We believe the MIC has lowered its risk profile, driven by a higher allocation to first mortgages. Additionally, stage three mortgages (impaired) decreased 0.9 pp YoY to 4.7% of mortgages, a notable contrast to the broader MIC sector, which saw a rise in impairments.
- Since June 2024, the BoC has cut rates seven times (225 bp), with the potential for one or two more cuts this year, due to slowing GDP growth, high unemployment, and cooling inflation. Consequently, we anticipate BCF’s transaction volumes to rise this year.
- While lower rates have historically boosted MIC/financial stocks, Trump’s tariff threats have negatively impacted both Canadian and U.S. equities across the board. Although tariffs will not directly affect MICs, we believe they could be impacted by a potential tariff-induced recession.
- Given the uncertainties, we are taking a cautious stance on MIC/financial stocks. We expect Trump may reverse or soften his new tariff measures due to their potential negative impact on U.S. consumers and businesses. Should this occur, we would revert to a bullish stance on MICs.
- We believe BCF is well-positioned to navigate economic uncertainties, given its strengthened portfolio, featuring more first mortgages, and fewer stage-three mortgages.
- We believe BCF can sustain its $0.80/share annual dividend this year, even if lending rates drop 2%, and provisions rise 250%, underscoring its resilience and low-risk profile.
Fundamental Research Corp. Equity Rating Scale:
- Buy – Annual expected rate of return exceeding 5%; the expected return is commensurate with risk
- Hold – Annual expected rate of return is between 5% and 12%
- Sell – Annual expected rate of return is below 5% or the expected return is not commensurate with risk
- Suspended or Rating N/A – Coverage and ratings suspended until more information can be obtained from the company regarding recent events.
Fundamental Research Corp. – Risk Rating Scale:
- (Low Risk) – The company operates in an industry where it has a strong position (for example a monopoly, high market share etc.) or operates in a regulated industry. The future outlook is stable or positive for the future. The company generates positive free cash flow and has a history of profitability. The capital structure is conservative with little or no debt.
- (Below Average Risk) – The company operates in an industry where the fundamentals and outlook are positive. The industry and company are relatively less sensitive to systemic risk than companies with a Risk Rating of 3. The company has a history of profitability and has demonstrated its ability to generate positive free cash flows (though current free cash flow may be negative due to capital investment). The company’s capital structure is conservative with little to modest use of debt.
- (Average Risk) – The company operates in an industry that has average sensitivity to systematic risk. The industry may be cyclical. Profits and cash flow are sensitive to economic factors although the company has demonstrated its ability to generate positive earnings and cash flow. Debt use is in line with industry averages, and coverage ratios are sufficient.
- (Speculative) – The company has little or no history of generating earnings or cash flow. Debt use is higher. These companies may be in start-up mode or in a turnaround situation. These companies should be considered speculative.
- (Highly Speculative) – The company has no history of generating earnings or cash flow. They may operate in a new industry with new, and unproven products. Products may be at the development stage, testing, or seeking regulatory approval. These companies may run into liquidity issues and may rely on external funding. These stocks are considered highly speculative.
Disclaimers and Disclosure
The opinions expressed in this report are the true opinions of the analyst about this company and industry. Any “forward looking statements” are our best estimates and opinions based upon information that is publicly available and that we believe to be correct, but we have not independently verified with respect to truth or correctness. There is no guarantee that our forecasts will materialize. Actual results will likely vary.
Fundamental Research Corp. “FRC” owns shares of the subject company: No. The analyst owns shares of the subject company: No , and does not make a market or offer shares for sale of the subject company, and does not have any investment banking business with the subject company.
Fees have been paid to FRC by Builders Capital Mortgage Corp. to commission this report and research coverage including update reports . This fee creates a potential conflict of interest which readers should consider. The purpose of the fee is to subsidize the high costs of research and monitoring. FRC takes steps to ensure independence including setting fees in advance and utilizing analysts who must abide by CFA Institute Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct. Additionally, analysts may not trade in any security under coverage. Our full editorial control of all research, timing of release of the reports, and release of liability for negative reports are protected contractually. To further ensure independence, Builders Capital Mortgage Corp. has agreed to a minimum coverage term including an initial report and three updates. Coverage cannot be unilaterally terminated. Distribution procedure: our reports are distributed first to our web-based subscribers on the date shown on this report then made available to delayed access users through various other channels for a limited time.
The distribution of FRC’s ratings are as follows: BUY (69%), HOLD (3%), SELL / SUSPEND (28%). Builders Capital Mortgage Corp.
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This report contains “forward looking” statements. Forward-looking statements regarding the Company and/or stock’s performance inherently involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from such forward-looking statements. Factors that would cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, continued acceptance of the Company’s products/technologies in the marketplace; acceptance in the marketplace of the Company’s new product lines/services; competitive factors; new product/service introductions by others; technological changes; dependence on suppliers; systematic market risks which discuss discussed in the Company’s periodic SEC filings, including interim reports, annual reports, and annual information forms filed with the various securities regulators. By making these forward-looking statements, Fundamental Research Corp. and the analyst/author of this report undertakes no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changes after the date of this report. A report initiating coverage will most often be updated quarterly while a report reconfirming a rating may have future results. A report initiating coverage will most often be updated quarterly while a report issuing a rating may have no further or less frequent updates because the subject company is likely to be in earlier stages where nothing material may occur quarter to quarter.
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