Author: Atrium Research September 22, 2026
Nicholas Cortellucci, CFA | Equity Research Analyst | [email protected] | 647-391-3314
Luca Perna | Equity Research Associate | [email protected] | 647-969-1027
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What you need to know:
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We are rehashing our investment thesis on THS Maple ahead of Q4 and FY26 results, which are due by the end of October. We model Q4 revenue of $4.7M (+13% YoY) and FY26 revenue of $16.4M (+14% YoY).
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YAY recently celebrated its 50th anniversary, with its products now sold in over 30 markets after opening in the Philippines, Australia, and New Zealand this year.
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We continue to view YAY as an inflection story, built on international expansion, underutilized capacity, and a fragmented acquisition landscape.
This morning, THS Maple Holdings Ltd. (YAY:TSXV) will report Q4 and FY26 financial results by the end of October, closing out the Company’s 50th year in business. Ahead of the print, we are rehashing the pillars of our investment thesis and previewing our Q4 and FY26 estimates. We remind readers that we initiated coverage on THS in March (read here), and that international sales have continued to grow rapidly since, up 182% YoY in Q3. We are maintaining a BUY rating and $0.20/share price target on YAY.
Investment Thesis Rehash Expanding into New Products & Geographies. THS has grown international sales to over 20% of total revenue across 30+ countries, with the growth from its US and Other Countries channels largely outpacing Canada. THS has also launched a retail/DTC partnership and is pursuing co-branding and co-packing opportunities in adjacent edible gift categories. We model 19% total revenue growth in FY27.
Underutilized Facilities. YAY’s Quebec facility can bottle 3-4x current volumes following automation investments in 2019, and its Vermont facility serves the fast-growing U.S. retail channel.
Acquisition Opportunities. The Canadian maple value-added market remains highly fragmented, with 13,500+ producers and many small bottlers lacking scale or distribution. THS is well-positioned to act as a consolidator given its excess capacity, established distribution, and public listing as acquisition currency.
Profitability Should Inflect Soon. Management is targeting 10-12% EBITDA margins, which we model being reached by FY28, driven by operating leverage, freight savings, and normalized SG&A.
Increasing Demand for Natural Sweeteners. Maple syrup’s lower glycemic index supports the demand for natural sweeteners, driving industry-wide growth.
Ownership. The Beutel family holds a combined ~39% strategic stake through Debric Holdings and Bellwether Capital Partners, providing long-term aligned capital and capital markets expertise. Management and insiders own ~6%.
Valuation. YAY currently trades at 8.9x FY28E EBITDA and 0.9x FY28E sales, a discount compared to its peers at 9.3x and 1.4x, respectively.
Q4 & FY26 Financials Preview YAY will be reporting Q4 and FY26 financial results by the end of October. We are expecting another strong quarter of growth, as seen by our estimates below.
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Q4 revenue of $4.7M (+13% YoY) and FY26 revenue of $16.4M (+14% YoY and 183% on the two-year stack).
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Gross margin of 19% for both Q4 and FY26, slightly lower than the 22% reported in FY25.
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Q4 EBITDA of ($0.1M), improving over the ($0.2M) reported in Q4/25. FY26 EBITDA of ($0.6M).
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Atrium Research Ratings System
BUY: The stock is expected to generate returns of over 20% over the next 24 months.
HOLD: The stock is expected to generate returns of 0-20% over the next 24 months.
SELL: The stock is expected to generate negative returns over the next 24 months.
NOT RATED (N/R): Atrium does not provide research coverage on the respective company.
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