The U.S. tourism industry is grappling with a sharp decline in international visitors, with inbound travel projected to shrink by 9.4% in 2025, according to Tourism Economics. This reversal from earlier forecasts of nearly 9% growth highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions, stricter border policies, and economic factors under President Donald Trump’s administration.
The downturn is evident across several key regions, with notable percentage drops in visitor numbers:
- Canada: Canadian travel to the U.S. is expected to fall by 20% this year. Land crossings have decreased by 31.9%, while air arrivals are down by 13.5% as of March. Tariffs and strained diplomatic relations have been major deterrents for Canadian tourists.
- Mexico: Air arrivals from Mexico dropped by 23% in March compared to the previous year, driven by a strong U.S. dollar and heightened border enforcement.
- United Kingdom: Travel from the UK fell by 11.6% in March, with concerns over visa policies and reports of detentions at U.S. borders contributing to the decline.
- Germany: German visitors to the U.S. decreased by 8.5% between February 2024 and February 2025, reflecting growing unease over U.S. entry policies and border security measures.
- China: Chinese tourism dropped significantly, with an 11% decline in visits during February compared to last year. Trade tensions and visa restrictions have deterred many travelers from this critical market.
- European Union (excluding Germany and the UK): Other EU countries collectively saw a 17% drop in visitors during March compared to the same period last year. Economic concerns, a strong dollar, and stricter immigration policies have all contributed to this decline.
The projected decline in international tourism could cost the U.S. economy $18 billion in lost revenue this year, affecting airlines, hotels, and other tourism-dependent sectors. For instance, Air Canada has reduced flights to popular U.S. destinations like Las Vegas due to falling demand, while U.S.-based airlines such as Delta and United are adjusting their operations accordingly.
International tourism to the United States has been hindered by several factors, including geopolitical tensions stemming from diplomatic strains and retaliatory tariffs that have caused potential visitors from Canada, Mexico, and Europe to reconsider their plans. Additionally, stricter border policies and reports of detentions at entry points have fostered a perception of unwelcomeness among international travelers. Economic barriers, such as the strong U.S. dollar, have further discouraged foreign tourists by making travel more expensive. Furthermore, controversial rhetoric and policies during the Trump administration have negatively impacted global perceptions of the United States as a welcoming destination.
The decline in international tourism comes at a critical time for an industry still recovering from pandemic-related disruptions. Tourism is a vital economic driver for the U.S., supporting millions of jobs across hospitality, transportation, and retail sectors. Analysts warn that sustained declines could delay full recovery until 2029.
The sharp drop in international visitors underscores how policy decisions can reshape global perceptions of a country as a travel destination. While iconic attractions like New York City and Yellowstone National Park continue to draw domestic interest, reversing this trend will require addressing underlying geopolitical and economic challenges that deter international tourists.
