West Texas Intermediate crude has climbed above $100 a barrel again, returning to a level last seen in May as traders respond to renewed fighting and growing doubts about how quickly the Iran war can end. The move is a reminder that oil markets are not pricing only the latest military exchange. They are also weighing the possibility that disruptions to Middle Eastern supply routes could continue for months or even years.
WTI futures for June delivery settled at $102.18 a barrel on May 12, up 4.2% for the day. The latest advance follows a sharp rise in July, when WTI reached $93.50 without breaking above $100. The July move was the most recent significant upward shift before the current surge, while May remains the last time the U.S. benchmark traded above the $100 mark.
The market’s immediate concern is supply. The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, carries a major share of the world’s seaborne oil trade. Any attack on tankers, restrictions on shipping or damage to energy infrastructure can force buyers to compete for alternative supplies. Even when physical production continues, the risk of delay can add a premium to prices.
The renewed U.S. and Iranian fighting has pushed Brent crude up $4.16 to settle at $94.65 on Sept. 1. WTI rose $4.46, or 5.2%, to $90.22, its highest closing price since July 23 at that time. The report also said Tehran had warned it could prevent oil exports from the Gulf, while analysts cautioned that energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz could face prolonged disruption.
That risk has become more significant because public and private assessments of the conflict’s duration appear to be diverging. President Donald Trump said Wednesday that he expected the Iran war to end “immediately” after the U.S. midterm elections in November. He also indicated that oil prices would fall after the elections.
The Wall Street Journal reported, however, that senior White House advisers had privately raised the possibility that the conflict could continue through the remainder of Trump’s term. That would take the war beyond Inauguration Day in January 2029. The report said officials had warned that Iran could continue resisting U.S. pressure, despite military action and efforts to restrict the country’s economic and energy activity.
For oil traders, the disagreement matters because prices depend heavily on expectations. A market that anticipates a quick settlement may tolerate temporary disruption and keep prices contained. A market preparing for a prolonged conflict is more likely to account for shipping delays, depleted inventories and the possibility of further attacks.
Higher crude prices can reach consumers through gasoline, diesel, air travel and the cost of transporting goods. They can also complicate efforts to control inflation, particularly if elevated energy costs persist rather than appearing as a short-lived spike. Businesses may face higher operating expenses, while central banks could find it harder to reduce interest rates if fuel prices feed into broader consumer prices.
The next stage of the Iran war will therefore be measured not only by battlefield developments, but also by the condition of oil infrastructure and commercial shipping. Traders will watch for evidence of negotiations, changes in tanker traffic, inventory data and any decision by major producers to increase output.
WTI above $100 does not prove that prices will remain there. It does show that the market has moved beyond treating the conflict as a temporary disturbance. Until the gap between Washington’s public timeline and the more cautious internal assessment is resolved, oil prices are likely to remain unusually sensitive to every military and diplomatic signal.
