TNR Gold Corp.
Transforms into a Revenue-Generating Royalty Company
Published: Jul 24, 2025
Author: FRC Analysts
*TNR Gold Corp. has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions.
Sector: Basic Materials | Industry: Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Ticker Symbols: TNR.V – NEO TRRXF – NASDAQ
Report Highlights
QP: Jonathan Findlay, P. Geo, Geological Consultant to TNR.
- TNR is up 55% since our previous report in February 2025. Early this year, Ganfeng Lithium (SZSE: 002460/MCAP: $13B) commenced production at its Mariana lithium project. Based on current spot lithium prices, we project annual royalty revenue of $1M for TNR. We anticipate TNR will begin receiving royalty payments in Q4-2025.
- TNR’s portfolio primarily consists of a gold project in Alaska (Shotgun), and royalties in two advanced-stage projects in Argentina, including the Mariana lithium project owned by Ganfeng, and the Los Azules copper-gold project owned by McEwen Inc. (privately held).
- McEwen Copper’s Los Azules copper-gold project hosts a large, open-pittable copper deposit (38 Blbs copper + 4.7 Moz gold + 159 Moz silver), with a resource update and feasibility study expected this quarter, following recent drilling. McEwen aims to begin construction in 2026, and commence commercial production by 2029. We are projecting annual royalty revenue of $6M using conservative copper prices, and up to $10M at current spot prices.
- Both Ganfeng and McEwen have applied to Argentina’s Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI) for their projects. The program offers tax breaks, customs incentives, and legal stability, reflecting Argentina’s push to create a more attractive and stable environment for large-scale mining investment.
- TNR is actively pursuing a JV partner to advance the Shotgun project to a PEA, and intends to spin out the asset.
- After a two-year downturn, lithium prices are turning around, a rebound we forecasted earlier this year. Prices have jumped 17% in the past month to US$9,800/t, though they remain down 18% YoY, and 88% from their late-2022 peak. Current levels are below the break-even point for most new large-scale projects, and we believe a sustained price of at least US$15,000/t is necessary to incentivize development. We expect this rebound to continue as the market moves toward a projected 2026 supply deficit. This deficit will be driven by battery demand from core EV and energy storage markets, as well as from rapidly growing sectors like AI data centers, robotics, and automation.
- Upcoming catalysts include the commencement of royalty revenue from Mariana, an updated resource estimate and feasibility study on Los Azules, and the potential for a joint venture partner at Shotgun.
Fundamental Research Corp. Equity Rating Scale:
Fundamental Research Corp. Equity Rating Scale (ratings are not a recommendation to acquire, dispose of, or take no action regarding a security; the definition of our ratings are explained below):
- Buy – Fair value is 12% above the current market price; or risk and reward is favorable
- Hold – Fair value is between 5% to 12% above the current market price
- Sell – Fair value is 5% above, or less, than the current market value; or risk and reward is unfavorable
- Suspended or Rating N/A – Coverage and ratings suspended until more information can be obtained from the company regarding recent events.
Fundamental Research Corp. – Risk Rating Scale:
- (Low Risk) – The company operates in an industry where it has a strong position (for example a monopoly, high market share etc.) or operates in a regulated industry. The future outlook is stable or positive for the industry. The company generates positive free cash flow and has a history of profitability. The capital structure is conservative with little or no debt.
- (Below Average Risk) – The company operates in an industry where the fundamentals and outlook are positive. The industry and company are relatively less sensitive to systematic risk than companies with a Risk Rating of 3. The company has a history of profitability and has demonstrated its ability to generate positive free cash flows (though current free cash flow may be negative due to capital investment). The company’s capital structure is conservative with little to modest use of debt.
- (Average Risk) – The company operates in an industry that has average sensitivity to systematic risk. The industry may be cyclical. Profits and cash flow are sensitive to economic factors although the company has demonstrated its ability to generate positive earnings and cash flow. Debt use is in line with industry averages, and coverage ratios are sufficient.
- (Speculative) – The company has little or no history of generating earnings or cash flow. Debt use is higher. These companies may be in start-up mode or in a turnaround situation. These companies should be considered speculative.
- (Highly Speculative) – The company has no history of generating earnings or cash flow. They may operate in a new industry with new, and unproven products. Products may be at the development stage, testing, or seeking regulatory approval. These companies may run into liquidity issues and may rely on external funding. These stocks are considered highly speculative.
Definition of FRC’s Fair Value Estimate – Our fair value estimate is the theoretical value of the company’s equity using widely accepted methods of valuation such as discount cash flow or comparables. IT IS NOT A TARGET PRICE or PREDICTION OF THE FUTURE STOCK PRICE.
Disclaimers and Disclosure
Analyst Certification: The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst, and no part of their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed.
Any “forward looking statements” are our best estimates and opinions based upon information that is publicly available and that we believe to be correct, but we have not independently verified with respect to truth or correctness. There is no guarantee that our forecasts will materialize. Actual results will likely vary. The analyst and Fundamental Research Corp.
Fundamental Research Corp. “FRC” owns shares of the subject company: No. The analyst owns shares of the subject company: No , does not make a market or offer shares for sale of the subject company, and does not have any investment banking business with the subject company.
Annual fees ranging from $15,000 to $30,000 have been paid to FRC by TNR Gold Corp. to commission this report and research coverage including update reports. This fee creates a potential conflict of interest which readers should consider. FRC takes steps to mitigate conflicts including setting fees in advance and utilizing analysts who must abide by CFA Institute Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct. Additionally, analysts may not trade in any security under coverage. Our full editorial control of all research, timing of release of the reports, and release of liability for negative reports are protected contractually. The issuer has agreed to a minimum coverage term and coverage cannot be unilaterally terminated. Distribution procedure: our reports are distributed first to our web-based subscribers on the date shown on this report then made available to delayed access users through various other channels for a limited time.
The distribution of FRC’s ratings are as follows: BUY (71%), HOLD (3%), SELL / SUSPEND (26%). TNR Gold Corp.
This report contains “forward looking” statements. Forward-looking statements regarding the Company and/or stock’s performance inherently involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from such forward-looking statements. Factors that would cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, continued acceptance of the Company’s products/services in the marketplace; acceptance in the marketplace of the Company’s new product lines/services; competitive factors; new product/service introductions by others; technological changes; dependence on suppliers; systematic market risks and other risks discussed in the Company’s periodic report filings, including interim reports, annual reports, and annual information forms filed with the various securities regulators. By making these forward-looking statements, Fundamental Research Corp. and the analyst/author of this report undertakes no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changes after the date of this report. A report initiating coverage will most often be updated quarterly while a report issuing a rating may have no further or less frequent updates because the subject company is likely to be in earlier stages where nothing material may occur quarter to quarter.
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