Three Point Capital Corp.
Strong Mortgage Growth Amid Easing Rates
Published: Oct 28, 2025
Author: FRC Analysts
Disclosure: Three Point Capital Corp. has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions.
Sector: Financial Services | Industry: Mortgage Finance
Report Highlights
- In the first nine months of 2025, gross mortgage receivables were up 23% to $244M, the highest in Three Point’s history.
- 2024 revenue rose 23% YoY to $22.83M, driven by higher lending rates, nearly matching our estimate of $22.85M. Net income increased 37% YoY, beating our estimate by 2%. 2025 (9M) net income rose 10% YoY, despite lower lending rates, supported by higher mortgage receivables.
- 2024 yield was 9.68% (vs our estimate of 9.27%) vs 8.13% in 2023. 2025 (9M) yield was 9.00%
- Focus remains on first mortgages on single-family units. As of September 2025, 47% of mortgages were in B.C., and 44% in ON. First mortgages accounted for 93% of the portfolio.
- Since June 2024, the Bank of Canada has cut rates eight times (totaling 250 bps), bringing the policy rate to 2.50%. Despite an uptick in inflation last month, we believe one more cut is possible over the next six months amid slowing GDP growth, elevated trade tensions, and high unemployment. While delinquencies remain a concern, easing monetary policy should help mitigate risks.
- At the end of Q3-2025, the MIC had $6M (2.48% of the portfolio vs the sector average of 5.98%) in stage three (impaired) mortgages vs $4M (1.85% of the portfolio) at the end of 2024.
- While impaired mortgages increased, we believe the fund remains well-positioned with a conservative LTV of 56%.
- Outlook: We project yields of 8.70% in 2025, and 8.01% in 2026.
* Three Point Capital has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions. All figures in C$ unless otherwise specified.
The table below compares Three Point’s portfolio with other MICs (AUM $100M+) focused on already-built single-family residential units.
Fundamental Research Corp. Equity Rating Scale:
- Rating – Excellent Return to Risk Ratio
- Rating – Very Good Return to Risk Ratio
- Rating – Good Return to Risk Ratio
- Rating – Average Return to Risk Ratio
- Rating – Weak Return to Risk Ratio
- Rating – Very Weak Return to Risk Ratio
- Rating – Poor Return to Risk Ratio
Fundamental Research Corp. Risk Rating Scale:
- (Low Risk)
- (Below Average Risk)
- (Average Risk)
- (Speculative)
- (Highly Speculative)
FRC Distribution of Ratings
| Rating | Percentage | Risk | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rating – 1 | 0% | Risk – 1 | 0% |
| Rating – 2 | 33% | Risk – 2 | 10% |
| Rating – 3 | 45% | Risk – 3 | 41% |
| Rating – 4 | 4% | Risk – 4 | 32% |
| Rating – 5 | 8% | Risk – 5 | 8% |
| Rating – 6 | 1% | Suspended | 10% |
| Rating – 7 | 0% | ||
| Suspended | 9% |
Disclaimers and Disclosure
The opinions expressed in this report are the true opinions of the analyst about this company and industry. Any “forward looking statements” are our best estimates and opinions based upon information that is publicly available and that we believe to be correct, but we have not independently verified with respect to truth or correctness. There is no guarantee that our forecasts will materialize. Actual results will likely vary.
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