Ecora Royalties – Continuing to Build Momentum; Increasing our TP

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Author: Atrium Research September 02, 2026

Nicholas Cortellucci, CFA | Equity Research Analyst | [email protected] | 647-391-3314

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What you need to know:

  • Ecora recorded its H1/26 results after pre-reporting portfolio contributions of $31.3M, up +75% YoY driven by base metals.

  • This growth translated to a +509% YoY increase in adjusted earnings and a strengthened balance sheet.

  • Net debt declined to $74.9M, and strong cash flow is expected to drive further de-levering in H2, providing flexibility for further acquisitions.

  • In tandem, development projects are reaching key milestones, which will de-risk organic growth within the portfolio.

This morning, Ecora Royalties PLC (ECOR:TSX, LSE, ECRAF:OTCQX) reported its H1/26 half-year results. The Company pre-reported its Q2 and H1 portfolio contributions in July (read here) marked by +54% and +75% QoQ and YoY growth, which included a +157% YoY increase in the base metals portfolio. This translated to an over 5x increase in adjusted earnings to $19.5M (+509% YoY). ECOR continues to build momentum through delivering critical minerals growth, and strong cash flows are anticipated to facilitate further balance sheet strength in H2. This will position the Company to fund further accretive acquisitions, while its solid pipeline of organic growth approaches key milestones in tandem. We are maintaining our BUY rating and increasing our target price to C$5.00/share (previously C$4.00/share) on Ecora Royalties.

Financial Highlights

  • Portfolio contribution of $31.3M (+75% YoY) was pre-reported, with base metals at $22.5M (+159% YoY), or 72% of the total (H1/25: 42%).

  • Royalty & stream related revenue of $32.0M (+102% YoY) vs. our $31.3M estimate, led by Voisey’s Bay where cobalt deliveries nearly doubled to 266t (vs. 140t in H1/25) at $28.40/lb (+72% YoY).

  • Operating profit before revaluations of $12.9M increased +247% YoY and broadly aligned with our $15.3M forecast.

  • Adjusted earnings of $19.5M increased +509% YoY from $3.2M in H1/25.

  • OCF of $15.2M (+271% YoY) and FCF of $12.1M (vs. $2.0M in H1/25) was modestly ahead of our $13.7M and $9.2M estimates.

Our Take

In our view, the significant growth on display in H1 highlights the scalability of the royalty model, and several upcoming catalysts will further de-risk additional organic growth for Ecora. Amongst producing assets, YoY volume growth is anticipated to continue in H2, which is further benefiting from the tailwind of strong commodity prices. Particularly copper that contributes ~50%+ of NAV, and is currently sitting at $6.60/lb. This compares to our long-term price forecast of ~$5.00/lb, providing significant upside to our valuation in tandem with brownfield expansions. Amongst development assets, several key catalysts are on the horizon providing visibility on growth in the medium term. We see Ecora in the critical stage of an impactful multi-year transformation to a high-quality, high growth, critical minerals focused royalty company, and continue to view this as an attractive entry point.

Catalysts

Key milestones we are watching for that underpin our growth forecast (discussed in detail below):

  • Mimbula Brownfield Expansion – Ongoing

  • Mantos Blancos Phase II PFS – Q3/26

  • Santo Domingo FID – Q4/26

  • Nifty Cathode Restart – H2/26

  • Voisey’s Bay Expansion Updates – 2027/2028

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